Lebanon Moving Towards “Vacuum Management”

The Arab League Secretary General invented a phrase that defines an upcoming situation where there’s no President, no agreement but also no civil strife.

Manage this.

Much of what is being said and written in Lebanon is more likely to be rumors than not. For example, each and every one of the Presidential hopefuls has received many calls to “congratulate him” for “the good news”. 

But one bit of information seems to be more leak than rumor. It is the statement by many politicians that tomorrow’s voting session “could” be postponed.

The biggest block to a consensus seems to be Mr. Aoun. In a nutshell, Mr. Aoun is convinced that he should be the “President who guarantees consensus”. His argument is this: As the most representative Christian, I am entitled to the Presidency like the Sunnis are entitled to the Premiership and the Shias to the legistlative chairmanship.

Mr. Aoun believe so much in the fairness of his position that neither the French President nor his allies were able to convince him to simply be a kingmaker. As his website puts it:

???? ?? ???????? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ???? “???? ??????” ?? ???? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????????? ??? ???? ???? ????? ??? ?? ????? ???

Translation (mine):

Accepting Mr. Aoun as a king maker would only produce a crisis manager, not a President of the republic, because the solution should be in a President who is king himself.

Mr. Aoun is in such a position of power that he’s causing problems for both his allies and his opponents. March 14 don’t like him because they believe that under the banner of fighting corruption, a President Aoun would embark on a witch-hunt to settle scores with his political opponents. 

Hezbollah and Amal don’t like him either because they are threatened by his unpredictable nature and his desire to be the number on leader who could go as far as sending the Army to disarm Hezbollah by force.

In other words, Vacuum Management might simply be a situation where March14 and March8 are scratching their heads over what to do about Mr. Aoun.

Related Beirut Spring posts:

• I’ve been writing about Aoun’s “right” for the presidency for some time. In September 2005, I argued that since the Shiaas chose Amal for the Speaker’s position (instead of the more popular Hezbollah), it is unfair to say that the most popular politician in a sect is entitled to the highest post • In October 2006, I highlighted a comment which gives an alternative theory on why Aoun is entitled to the presidency • Last March, I wrote about the problems the opposition are having with Aoun.