On Aoun’s Presidential Aspirations
An alternative theory on why Aoun should be the President.
I received a comment on a previous post that deserves some exposure. The reader thinks that we got it all wrong on Aoun’s entitlement to the presidency. Here’s what (s)he had to say:
Aoun is not saying that since Shia’s picked Nabih Berri, he should be picked because he represents Christians, this is a bunch of propaganda trying to make the FPM seem sectarian at heart.
The fact of the matter is, that after the Parliamentary elections, three powers emerged: The FM and their allies, Hezbollah-Berri alliance, and the FPM and their allies. Hezbollah-Berri got the speaker of Parliament, the FM got the position of Prime Minister, and so therefore naturally, the FPM should get the last remaining spot, which is the Presidency. If the FM and their sidekicks don’t want to give them the Presidency, then let them take it, but give the FPM the position of Prime Minster. So basically, it is not about the Presidency itself, but rather that all three major powers in the country should have one of the three top positions.
To not give the FPM one of the top positions would be to ignore the desires and opinions of many Lebanese, and would only concentrate more power in the hands of the FM and their allies, which would be majorly over represented if they got the Presidency spot as well.
What do you think about this?
The Ideas above reflect the opinion of their contributor and do not necessarily represent The Beirut’s Spring point of view.
The Beirut Spring Had previously invited readers to publish their own pieces. You are still welcome to contribute.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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Is that what the FPM is saying?
Gee… I must have missed it.
LoL, they are trying to find as much arguments as possible …
hehehe
ya3ne the latest one is trying to descredit harb, god knows what will they come uo with next
Khaled,
One one hand, shame on the FPM for trying to discredit Harb.
On the other hand shame on Harb for being “Opposed to syria” for about 15 years without managing to piss them off once.
The FPM argument seems reasonable to me
I don’t think that the next president must be chosen by the Christians, it should be chosen by the country. On the other hand I do think that the next president should be a representative Christian, not a puppet Christian. The parliament can chose between, Aoun, Geagea, Nassib Lahoud, Harb, Moawad or any representative guy.
no VOX as according to FPM
if any one byt GMA is chosen, then Lebanon will be re-named puppet republic
Very interesting rationale…
The irony is that the choice, no matter what, is in the hands of the Tayyar Mustaqbal. However, they can’t go it alone.
Given that Aoun has been reaching out to Hezbollah, they might not immediately go along with the Mustaqbal candidate and let negotiations drag on. That would essentially give them more power.
Imagine how Hezbollah/Amal would feel about Hariri and Jumblatt controlling the presidency and the prime ministry. Future would get to appoint the vast majority of the cabinet members should the old system of appointing ministers continue.
Imagine the loss of credibility Geagea and Georges Adwan would experience if they went along with Ghattas Khoury as the next president.
Christians want a powerful president. By staying in his position, if not for anything else, Lahoud is powerful.
However, it’s not in the best interest of Berri/Hezbollah to have a powerful president.
That means a Harb presidency is more likely. He was incredibly tolerant of Syrian rule, and he is not fully reliant on Mustaqbal, ie he has some independence, which is good for Hezbollah/Amal. Simultaneously, he was on Hariri’s list and has a record quite similar to the other politicians currently in office who began their tenure under Syrian rule.
Naming Harb would also make it difficult to keep his block in line.
Harb is a known entity who has worked in the past with all political groups.
He’s also a cautious politician,even if he is independent, which means he won’t be changing anything quickly.
Thank you for publishing my comments.
LP
nice analysis…
as for Khoury, for sure he will not b president, as FM are not dum to introduce someone the Lebanese and their allies do not agree on.
I think that Khoury is dangeled as a option just to scare aoun:-)
Oh and by the way.. if Harb becomes president, Bassil can become the replacement of Harb as an MP and maybe will then stop saying sarakna el neyabe:-)
here are some comments from two FM supporters:
Comment 1:
..and who will be appointed as Prime minister representing FPM?
1- Assem Arraji
2- Omar Karamé
3- Abdel Majid Raféi
4- Ahmad Karamé
5- Mahmoud Tobbo
6- Jihad Samad
7- Saleh Kheir
8- Mohammad Yehia
9- Jamal Ismail
p.s. It’s a serious post. 3an jadd
Comment two:
Let’s accept this logic.
The Amal-Hizb coalition weren’t attacking FM and allies as GMA is doing. Do you think the majority would’ve given the position to Berri if he was showing the same hatred FPM is showing towards the allies?
Besides, if what they are proposing is logical, who is going to be the opposition? Or they want to repeat the Lahoud era? Opposing everything the prime minister suggesting?
This is very silly khaled. Are U trying to show that FPM is out of sunnis. This is a really silly propaganda, and we as FPMers don’t accept it. Have U ever heard that the coordinator of FPM in Beirut is Rayya Daouk? in Tripoli bassam el Khodr Agha… And the list goes on…
Anyway, the latest polls concerning the presidency showed that GMA’s the strongest candidate not only amongst the christians but also amongst the chiites and comes 2nd amongst the sunnites after Boutros Harb. So U cannot say anymore that GMA is not accepted by the whole Lebanese, and if U consider Urself a big part of the lebanese that don’t accept GMA, well at least the 1/3 of the people that voted for GMA in the elections won’t accept anybody else, and I think that 1/3 of the lebanese population are considerable.
TonyFPM
Khaled, I’m sure people can go to the FM forum and read your posts there, no need to re-post them here. Either way, it is obvious that your list of pontential FPM candidates for the post of Premier is meant to mock. Do you fear the fact that the FPM has Sunni members and supporters? How many Christian members or supporters does the FM have (besides the ones employed by you know who)?