I completely agree with this analysis.

If we should have learned anything about Michel Aoun in the last two years is that the Presidency is his number one priority. His immense desire and love for power is illustrated in both the fact that he claims to represent the whole Christian community and that HE and only HE is entitled to the Presidency. Also that in his aspiration to become President he was even willing to break away from the original FPM political program and pre-summer 2005 ideals in his bid to become President.

This is why today the opposition has a predicament. Why should Aoun continue to support them and risk a further decline in his political support base among the Christians, predominantly among the sect he claims to represent, if his payment for the sacrifice he is making is going to be met. I think its actually a predicament for Michel Aoun as well. Just like Michael Young said in one of his articles, Aoun can potentially be king-maker, but will never be king.

I believe Michel Aoun’s greatest move would be to reassess his long-term political objectives, and the future of the country if a consensus candidate was elected. I think he’ll find that in the long-run if he is seen as the king-maker that made a March 14 candidate President king, then he might just be hailed as a liberator. He would get back all the support he lost in the last two years, and he would definitely have a hand in picking more than half the christian ministers in cabinet.

But in Lebanon an outcome like this is extremely far fetched. The status quo defined by the slow decay of the country will prevail. Choosing an indecisive President with no real views on anything will likely be the outcome. And as usual instead of going one way or the other with policy, political and economic agenda and reform etc. we will go nowhere just to keep everyone at a safe and equal dissatisfaction from the status quo.

Who do you think benefits from that kind of outcome and status quo?

m said: “If we should have learned anything about Michel Aoun in the last two years is that the Presidency is his number one priority.”

Dear m, Presidency is Aoun’s only priority!!! This guy is so narrow minded that he does not see anything else other than the Presidential Palace!!!

honestly did you see how the guy couldnt keep his head striaght while he was speaking with Marcel Ghanem on Kalam al nas, also watch the way he was sitting is that a possible future president, he was sitting like a gangster one hand in his pocket and while the he was on television, he is digusting.

Actually Mustapha I would desribe Nasrallah as telling everyone….that THIS is how big my anus is…and michy can fit straight through. Yalla!

Ayesh Lubnan!

“”I believe Michel Aoun’s greatest move would be to reassess his long-term political objectives, and the future of the country if a consensus candidate was elected.”"

First - one would have to believe that Aoun has “long term objectives” — his objectives have always been for him and at his age, they can be nothing but short term.
The FPM movement was and is just a vehicle for his goal of the chair.

One of the interesting things I’ve noticed is that the “warlord” Geagea fully understands about being a “Kingmaker”. Aoun had many chances to be a “hero” and he let them all go .. It is doubtful he will change now.
It was clear on Jan 23 that this “opposition” was a failure and he lost his biggest chance right then. He could have pulled out and he might even have been able to talk his way into the chair with enough mea culpas.

After reading all the previous comments, I have a question: if Aoun is so obviously only after one goal, why is he still so popular and why does he still have a large party following? I have not seen members of his party leave. And he still commands a large following with the population. Is there a reason for that?

Paul Fares for president!

leo, many members of his party left. My father being one of them. They’d like you to think that they are stronger then ever. But the simple fact is that Aoun’s “MOU” with Hezballah did not go well with his base.

leo,

I agree. It does appear strange. And when I first started following Lebanese politics I was also flabbergasted at why leaders could change positions, have contrary positions, dismiss facts etc. and still not lose popular support.

The problem is that you are framing things based on the logic of Western politics and this is Lebanon. So.

Here is an easy to use chart. This the way the average brain in Lebanon processes new information.

1- The Zaame (leader) is always right
2- Conspiracy theories make all inconsistencies consistent
3- Facts and logic

If you note, level 3 is never reached because there is always a Zaame statement or conspiracy theory out there that will nullify it.

I hope this helped :-)

Thanks for the reply.
I still finf it hard to believe.

Ramzi, you forgot an important rule!

2.5 - It must be somebody else fault.

[...] • I’ve been writing about Aoun’s “right” for the presidency for some time. In September 2005, I argued that since the Shiaas chose Amal for the Speaker’s position (instead of the more popular Hezbollah), it is unfair to say that the most popular politician in a sect is entitled to the highest post • In October 2006, I highlighted a comment which gives an alternative theory on why Aoun is entitled to the presidency • Last March, I wrote about the problems the opposition are having with Aoun. [...]

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