Beirut Spring

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On Electoral Messages

Regardless of whether or not we like Aoun’s electoral message. Is it effective?After going through FPM officials’ public statements, one can conclude that Aoun’s strategy is to present this election as a fight to restore Christian and presidential powers. The strategy paints his opponent Amine Gemayel as a pawn in the hands of the Muslims. (Hence the talk of refusing to add a seat to Quoreitem)I have mixed feelings on the strategy’s effectiveness. The populist play on Christian instincts can be very effective, since a feeling of being wronged is a great motivator. But there’s a problem: A large chunk of the electorate is Armenian. Would they be mobilized by calls to restore Maronite presidential power? Is this really the message that will get your average Vartan up from the bed in the morning to get out and vote? Some say the magic trick was mentioning Quoreitem. Armenians hold many grudges against Hariri, Gemayel’s ally in March 14. This government has disregarded Armenian pleas when it accepted the deployment of Turkish troops (An Armenian nightmare) in UNIFIL.Another potential problem in the FPM’s campaign is turnout. What if many people who support Aoun just find the situation (voting against the father of a slain MP) too awkward and decide to stay home?The FPM’s strong allies and good grass root organization could compensate for the above weaknesses. But still, this election’s outcome is far from certain.

Mustapha Hamoui · Aug 3, 2007

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Moving In..

Last year, an English couple in their 80s were visiting Lebanon when the war broke out. They had to be evacuated by helicopter because of their old age.Any other grumpy old couple would probably think: “I’m never visiting this damned country again”. But not the Griffiths. This year, to the shock of their friends, they have decided to move to Lebanon for good.

Mustapha Hamoui · Aug 2, 2007

Let Them Compete, But Let Them Be Civil

The Patriarch’s efforts should be spent less on “reconciliation” and “consensus” and more on promoting a responsible competition.

Mustapha Hamoui · Aug 2, 2007

How Lebanese Politicans Share Power

The trick is easy: All you have to do is to attribute a synonym of “ultimate leader” for each one of your sectarian zaims and stick them next to each other on your winshield. Voila! You got yourself a partnership.

Mustapha Hamoui · Jul 31, 2007

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