On Electoral Messages

Regardless of whether or not we like Aoun’s electoral message. Is it effective?

After going through FPM officials’ public statements, one can conclude that Aoun’s strategy is to present this election as a fight to restore Christian and presidential powers. The strategy paints his opponent Amine Gemayel as a pawn in the hands of the Muslims. (Hence the talk of refusing to add a seat to Quoreitem)

I have mixed feelings on the strategy’s effectiveness. 

The populist play on Christian instincts can be very effective, since a feeling of being wronged is a great motivator. But there’s a problem: A large chunk of the electorate is Armenian. Would they be mobilized by calls to restore Maronite presidential power? Is this really the message that will get your average Vartan up from the bed in the morning to get out and vote? 

Some say the magic trick was mentioning Quoreitem. Armenians hold many grudges against Hariri, Gemayel’s ally in March 14. This government has disregarded Armenian pleas when it accepted the deployment of Turkish troops (An Armenian nightmare) in UNIFIL.

Another potential problem in the FPM’s campaign is turnout. What if many people who support Aoun just find the situation (voting against the father of a slain MP) too awkward and decide to stay home?

The FPM’s strong allies and good grass root organization could compensate for the above weaknesses. But still, this election’s outcome is far from certain.