Tactical Weakness?
Bending with the wind, March 14 was apparently neither shocked nor awed.
A new theory that is gaining currency is that March 14 intentionally turned the other cheek (and handed their weapons) to let Hezbollah and its allies fall into a trap. Here are some of the arguments being made to support that theory:
From Lebanon Updates: “Hezbollah’s failed Shock and Awe“:
In retrospect, March 14’s rather unexpected giving up its locations to the Army was quite a smart thing to do, assuming Hezbollah won’t fight the army’s present in March 14’s regional offices. This effectively takes away the violence option from Hezbollah.
That leaves Hezbollah with two problems: one is that time is running out so they have to take the initiative, something the guerrilla organization doesn’t have much experience with: changing from countering Israel’s aggression towards defining the agenda requires a change in approach that it might find difficult to make.
Second, up until now, Hezbollah has pretty much always used violence as its strategy of last resort negotiations. Now with the Army stepping in, that card is of the table, leaving Hezbollah with little choice but to explore new ways of getting what it wants: true dialogue.
Guy Bechor, Ynet News: Nasrallah lost, for now:
Just like in the crisis of December 2006, when tens of thousands of Shiites besieged Siniora’s government palace, the same happened this time around: Prime Minister Siniora adopted the tactic of weakness. This is the same tactic he used against us during the Second Lebanon War, when he broke into tears in order to exert international pressure on Israel.
Siniora is a true artist when it comes to understanding the Middle East. He did not fall into the trap of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah and did not unleash the Lebanese army against Hizbullah’s fighters. Had he done so, Nasrallah would have taken advantage of it and really taken over Beirut. Instead, Siniora allowed Hizbullah to enter areas it doesn’t belong in, thus making Nasrallah fall into a trap himself.
And of course, the previously mentioned Rex Brynen of McGill University:
First, there was the 2006 war, which Hizbullah clearly did not foresee (although it was quite foreseeable). As it turns out they secured their “divine victory” because the Israelis made even more serious mistakes, but it certainly wasn’t a triumph of strategic master thought.
Then there was the withdrawal from cabinet, and the “tent camp” siege of the government–which turned out to NOT to have the rapid and decisive effect that Hizbullah intended. Nasrallah seems to have never anticipated that he would simply be ignored, and that it would be business as usual in the Grand Serail.
Finally, there is the take-over of West Beirut. While the rather foolish and incautious cabinet decisions were the cause of this, I think it was also driven by Hizbullah’s continuing inability to leverage M14 as much as they wanted to. The withdrawal of fighters from the street (albeit, after some very thuggish behaviour by their Amal and SSNP proxies) was clearly intended to spin this all as a reluctant Hizbullah with a national agenda (rather than a sectarian move), they’ve clearly underestimated the effect in the Christian community where it has all done substantial damage to Aoun (a fact that even his most loyal deputies are privately admitting). Given that the Christian community is the only one in play–the Shiite, Sunni, and Druze communities are all pretty much solidly behind the Hizbullah/Amal, Mustaqbal, and the PSP respectively, and now even more so–the long term result could be a politically weakened M8. Ironically, this comes at a time when M14’s weak government performance were causing it some real problems with its constituents–however, events in Beirut will now counter that with a “rally around the (sectarian) flag” effect.
It is also possible that the M14 groups will now do some serious arming and training (despite all the accusations, their past efforts have been VERY limited and haphazard), probably with Saudi/Jordanian/Egyptian support–not really in Hizbullah’s long-term advantage.
Finally, what does Hizbullah do if M14 just ignores Hizbullah’s obvious preeminent military power? I suspect they’ll do exactly that: not soften on the “presidential package” (next cabinet/PM, new electoral law), leaving Hizbullah no better off than before. Indeed, given the damage M8 has taken in non-Shiite communities, in a few months it could even be in a somewhat worse position.
In short, I think this is far from being an unalloyed masterstroke of strategic brilliance.
Elie Fawaz’s article at Michael Totten’s blog:
“So, we know that Hezbollah’s well-trained fighters are in control of most of west Beirut. The decision taken by Walid Jumblat and Saad al-Hariri not to fight back in Beirut, but rather hand most of their positions to the army ended any illusion regarding the sanctity of the “resistance” – that it would never turn its weapons inward, for now its hands are dripping with the blood of innocent Lebanese. But it’s different in the Chouf where Jumblatt’s forces bloodied Hezbollah.
And finally top it with a personal “i told you so“
“shock and awe” is a deliberate tactic by Nassrallah for cowing the Lebanese. If we are neither shocked, nor awed, we will take away Hezbollah’s psychological advantage. If on the other hands March 14 fights fire with fire, they will help feed Hezbollah’s supporters’ sense of victimization and prolong their “resistance”.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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The tides are sure turning. Check the following piece by Phares, he dubbed the few Druze fighters Lebanon’s “300″, a well deserved comparison indeed.
http://www.cedarsrevolution.net/jtphp/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1604&Itemid=2
Looks like HZB is undergoing an extensive process of Israelization.
HZB does the same Israeli mistakes of 2006.
That is being over-self-confident, going to war without any plan, without knowing what it wants to achieve or how, and most important, with no exit plan.
Israel dragged it’s feet for 34 days, confused, shocked (maybe), and frustrated.
So will HZB.
.
I wonder if M14 has the guts to put them away for good?
Give in to what they “say” they want but do it at lightning speed. A new election ASAP. Who thinks Hezbollah or Aoun will get any support in Lebanon today?
****anon, all I’m asking for is civility. One more obscene comment and you’re banned***
Anon,
1. You are sick!
2. Wars have several rounds and different fronts (military, media and pschological). In chess, sometimes you are willing to sacrifice the pawn to get his castle!
3. Let see what is HA’s exit game.
4. We heard from your master, Bashar Asad, that “we will reply to the aggression of the Israelis at the time and place that we will decide!” Israel destroyd its nuclear plant after Syria spent at least $500 million dollars! All went in few minutes. If Syria and Iran want to eliminate Israel, what are they waiting for? Both have the big missiles that can destroy whole block of buildings! What is preventing them for not doing so?
Do you think I give a crap?
Look, loser. You’re just entertainment to me. I’m not even Lebanese. I’m an American, sitting in my comfortable house, shitloads of money in my pocket, good food in my stomach, and sex whenever I want it.
I surf your blog for fun. You’re my entertainment. Seeing you little monkeys fight eachother helps me pass the time in my comfortable life. You’re like a TV show to me.
anon,
For someone who claims to be an American you write for shit. True Americans don’t find entertainment in the misery of others - that’s the trademark of the fanatics and thugs of Dahia where you’re probably sauntering.
I didn’t ask you to fight eachother, but I’ll enjoy the show!
You’re a country of 3 million (?) nothings. You’re not even worth a fart on teh world stage. Your only value is entertainment. Six groups, fighting it out deathmatch style in a small arena.
If only you M14ers would fight back, then we’ll have a real action movie.
this is so entertaining, going to these confused, abandoned, orphaned pro-american (still!?!) blogs.
every moment, one reads a different theory that grabs at shadows, trying to make sense of the fact that the ground has crumbled underneath them.
first it’s 3aw 3aw
then it’s meow meow
then it’s ribit ribit
then it’s moo moo
then it’s coocadooledoo
then it’s grooooooooooooooowl
then it’s back to meow
make up your mind! what are you? strong? weak? constitutional? tactical? calm, cool and collected? paranoid and panicking? better yet, don’t make up your mind. just keep entertaining me.
now type for me.
anon,
You sound like a very disturbed individual. I don’t know if you are being serious or not but either way you need a shrink. You are a menace to society, think of the kids… get help now…
Uhh, yeah. You people spend all day shooting eachother, and *I* need a shrink. rofl.
You probably do it to entertain us. It’s the only way Lebanon can be significant enough to get in the papers.
anon,
you’re not fooling anyone by pretending to be an American you dumb ass. your type stumbles his way here every once in a while to no avail. so contribute something or just buzz off..
i love how the consensus here seems to be that a disturbed individual like anon MUST be a non-american. very nice. racist, if those who assert this are american, and self-hating, if those who assert it are lebanese. in any case, anon makes a good point, in an ignorant kind of way.
coocadoodoldoo.
k’mooon… Just admit defeat to the pro-government milita or suporters with guns. I took Hezbollah 3 days, after the “pro-government milita or suporters with guns” noticed they were loosing ground to a well trained “militia”, they handed they’re weapons.
Lets not switch things… Again, if you want to hold anything against Hezbollah is, they only commited One huge error, they used their weapons on their own people.
TheCourtFool,
Wrong, we’re not the same people.
I just cannot believe this weakness was staged. Either Al Mustaqbal didn’t have the equipped manpower, or their people were too scared to fight the HA.
After the last week I think people in M14 are realizing they’ll end up no where without their own well equipped militias, and I won’t be surprised if, while we’re scribbling, weapons and training are already being discussed between M14 parties and future allies outside Lebanon (USA? Israel?)
@all, anon is not worth a reply. Ignore this individual!
On-topic:
I believe March 14 should be more concerned, as:
“Iranian Papers on the Events in Lebanon: ‘In the Power Struggle in the Middle East, There Are Only Two Sides – Iran and the U.S.’; As a Result Of Hizbullah’s Victory, ‘The U.S.’s Influence in the [Middle East] Region Will Stop, and the Regimes Identified With It Will Be Replaced’”
and:
“The Iranian daily Javan, which is identified with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), backed up Hizbullah’s launch of an armed political struggle in Lebanon, saying, “The measure taken by Hizbullah is a kind of preventive action against a possible coup by the March 14 Forces.” ”
http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD192408
Dear All,
Create an online and pdf format petition for both Lebanese abroad and on the ground highlighting some of these points.
1. We say NO to State within a State
2. We say NO to HA/Amal weapons
3. One People
4. One Democratic Government
5. One Army
Enhance it as you see fit.
Let’s get a Million + signatures and present it to the coalition of M14 so that they can present it to the UN and at any round table National Dialogue.
Let’s get it done ASAP and spread the word.
The Hizballah attack was just a matter of time . Those scenarios are quite plausible or it could be just by coincidence that this happened i mean the transferring of those weapons and offices to the army. I all effect its very obvious that the shock and awe just faded away swiftly and persuaded the Lebanese that those shiite thugs are extremely dangerous to the country. We should also draw attention to the Al-Akhbar newspaper which plays a really dangerous role in foolinf public opinion and transmitting war propaganda before and after hezballah attacks.
Could you please post a map of Lebanon with the names of villages where the fighting is going on?
I’m only pointing out that when given a choice between looking Lebanese, or putting noxious chemicals in her hair to “look” Northern European, she chose the latter.
I put “look” in quotes because in fact she failed. She doesn’t look Northern European. She just looks like an Arab who died her hair red.
M14 are a bunch of pussies. They only carried those weapons because they are on the hariri payroll. They cuddled up in the fetal position and shit their pants. You don’t have any real men, and all the M14 leaders are abandoning ship and high tailing it to israel and america.
It’s always more than funny to hear and read “analysis” trying to turn a humiliating defeat into a victory, and politics and I don’t know what!
Hizbullah sent a clear message to all: WE RULE; YOU SUCK!
This simple!
This is just a remake of Aoun - Geagea war in 1989. Teh LF took a big slap int he face. Geagea said : ” Bimoun el general” and went ahead and start arming his forces and changed his speech gainst the General and in 1990, he wnet ahead with his military adventure against the General (don’t care who started that stupid war, and who is guilty of it). The result then was that both of them lost. The FM and HA will be doing the same thing and again both will lose. HA is strong in Beirut, FM is strong in the North, no one can eliminate the other. I just hope they learn from recent history…. but listening to Hariri kid yesterday, i don’t think so,….
In brief, now it is the golden opportunity to reach a deal between ALL. Will we fail to grab the opportunity as we did in 2005? of course, we are Lebanese people!
What happened to M14 is called a bitch slap. Now just sit there and keep your mouth shut. What a bunch of wanna bees.