The 10-10-10 Rears Its Ugly Head Again
The opposition tries to portray the 10-10-10 formula as a compromise.
It happened in the last meeting between Messrs. Amro Moussa, Amine Gemayel, Michel Aoun and Saad Hariri, when a stalemate was reached. An angry Hariri decided to prove to the Arab League’s Secretary General that the opposition is stalling. So he looked into Mr. Aoun’s eyes and asked him: “Let’s suppose we do accept the 10-10-10 formula, would you then accept the immediate election of Mr. Sleiman?”
Mr. Aoun stumbled a bit then unleashed a series of new demands. He said that he wanted discussions on who the next Prime Minister should be. He brought up demands on filling high security ranks and ministerial positions, and then went back to insist on the blocking third.
Mr. Hariri rested his case.
Now, as Mr. Moussa gets ready to come back to Lebanon and re-host the quadripartite meeting, the opposition floated the 10-10-10 idea again. Mr. Berri, not a stranger to chutzpah, used the exchange above to suggest that Mr. Hariri had accepted the 10-10-10 proposition, and casually included in the package a string of unspecified ministerial arrangements where the Majority’s Christians would be significantly under-represented.
Rubbish! Mr. Hariri thundered to his Almustaqbal TV channel yesterday. The opposition is “distributing roles”, between a hardline Aoun who’s insisting on a blocking third, and a “made-in-Syria” proposition (10-10-10) floated by Mr. Berri. The formula, as regular readers to this blog know, is nonsensical.
Mr. Aoun is now saying that since the Majority won’t agree with the 10-10-10 formula, Mr. Moussa should not bother coming to Lebanon. The opposition, it seems, is in no hurry to untangle Lebanon.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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Mustapha,
This is just a garden variety bartering. They knew they cannot have 1/3+1, so they go for 10/10/10…Start high and go low… They figure if you give someone two options, they’ll pick the one less “evil”.
Nothing more to this than a juvenile attempt of negotiation by fat bastards!
What you said applies to both sides 8 and 14, especially that name calling. “fat bastards”?. Your hatred makes people like the other side more actually. The only respectable figure for M14 is Hariri. I used to like MP Pierre G. and Ghassan T. All the remaining ones however are a joke.
I heard what you LF people said during 2006 summer war. Shame on you. You wanted Israel to deliver a “cadeaux” to you by eliminating HA and giving you the power again. Shame on you for wishing death upon other Lebanese.
Mus, what is your source for the story about “Hariri looking at Aoun in his eyes and asking him…”
Having taken Negotiations courses in the past, I can tell you that you can never reach a settlement if the whole negotiation is based on a single issue.
The basic rule of negotiations is to add as many issues as possible to the negotiation table because each issue has a different level of importance and priority to each party.
If the negotiation is focused on a single issue, then it becomes a game of power. When the 2 powers are equal, there is no settlement.
Each party has an alternative to the settlement. The alternative is usually a worse scenario than the settlement. However, if they are willing to live with that alternative, then a settlement does not have to be reached.
The only way to solve this is either:
(1) Agree on a basket of issues
or
(2) Wait until there is an external factor which will render the alternative to a negotiated settlement an unacceptable situation.
Until then, all things being equal, there is no solution.
Wow,
Are we discussing something that makes sense?
This is supposed to be a democratic country with its laws and constitution. What “basket” are you talking about? So if March 14 agrees to:
**Aoun becoming President
**HA keeping its weapons and its State
**Giving March 8 (HA) 1/3+1 in cabinet shares
**Let HA chose the army and ISF chiefs
**Let Ha decide who can we be friends with..oops, only Iran & Syria
Then we’ll have a deal??
HA has been blocking this from day one. Everyone has their own axe to grind! What the hell were the elections for?
All the rhetoric and posturing means nothing. We have idiots like “whatever” and his like who have nothing smart to say but criticize. For your dumb ass brain my oragette whatever, I have no hatred towards anyone… but disdain towards morons like you who do not understand any logic and keep on regergitating the same shit over and over again!!
The main question should be: Are Lebanese and its parties ready to live in a democratic society with all its laws and institutions?
If yes, then everyone puts down their guns and talk like civilized nations do!!Respecting of the constitution as it was written,and interpreted by Judges and Legal minds not according to interpretation of curbside vendors(Iztaz comes to mind)!
End…
Sami,
All what you said is nice. Unfortunately, that’s not how the Lebanese negotiate.
Each side is trying to convince the other that their BATNA is war.
Hardly a relief.
Sami…
Lebanon is the last place in the world you should be applying your coursework to.
Mustapha,
You forgot to mention that when Aoun had his “stumble” after Hariri’s bluff – he had to excuse himself from the room to make a telephone call for further instructions. He then returned with all the other conditions. I do believe the so-called opposition is no longer interested in the 1/3 +1 … hasn’t this now been increased to 45%?
There is a phrase that makes the rounds that one doesn’t need to talk to one’s friends – only one’s enemies – to solve problems. Along the same thread is that force alone cannot solve political problems. Nobody can fault Lebanon for not talking – and talking – and talking. Be careful that another observer of such situations, Carl von Clausewitz, doesn’t have his approach tested again (and there are a lot of “agains”) – that war is diplomacy by other means. The abyss is beckoning.
Again, why not early elections? We don’t want this president Sleiman being agreed upon, this is not democracy!!! they should be agreeing on a new electoral law if both parties has democracy survival in their minds, this is the only way there will be a solution. Election will show the true majority and the true majority votes for a president and the parliament chooses a new government.
Enough wasting time, all this shit happening today is going to be reshuffled with the new elections next year, and until then we are still wasting time.
Early Elections NOW!!!
Krach,
Forgetting about why we should not have any elections before its time…Let me ask you this question:
Let’s assume they agreed to a new law and elections happened. Also, let’s assume March still maintained its majority…WHAT THEN???
Do you think for a moment that this theocratic party will become a democratic one? Do you think that old orangebutt will become patriotic and wise and forget about his idiocy???
WHAT THEN???
“Supposed to be a democratic country” ???
Let me stop you right there Danny. Lebanon never was a democratic country. And it certainly isn’t nowadays.
The very first precept of democracy is the respect for law and order and the state’s institutions. ie: everyone agreeing to play by the rules, win or lose.
Lebanon and the Lebanese people do not understand the meaning of Democracy (as the comments on this blog remind us every day). You guys think bartering at the point of a gun, and being a sore loser is “Democracy”. Well it’s not.