The 10+10+10 formula is the antithesis of Democracy. The Majority would be a fool to accept it, even with Syria causing unrest.
Warned (picture from nowlebanon.com)
I wonder if the politicians peddling the (10-10-10) formula (where each party gets 10 ministers in a 30-member cabinet) realize how ridiculous their demand is. Even the otherwise neutral Patriarch was fed up: In democracies, the Majority is supposed to rule, he announced.
Imagine how difficult it would to hold a cabinet accountable when authority is so evenly divided. Killing accountability in the name of compromise is no way to run a country. And we haven’t even started with the distribution of the super Ministries.
Moreover, the opposition keeps having impossible demands, confirming that what Syria really wants is a political vacuum in Lebanon. Mr. Omar Karami, a political cadaver from Syrian times wants “guarantees” that the Presidents’ Ministers will not switch sides like Mr. Lahhoud’s did. In other words, Mr. Sleiman is to find 10 ‘independent’ slaves with no judgment of their own.
Trying to cause a Christian inter-fighting by provoking the LF, causing unrest in the Palestinian camps and sending warning bombs to the UNIFL are all the trademark of Syrian negotiations tactics.
March 14 shouldn’t succumb.
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The beirut spring is a blog that is interested in Lebanese society and its politics. It started in February 2005 after the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
January 9th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
No surprises here. I was one of the advocates of 50+1…and still am. Although its punch is gone, it seems the only option that can bring “SYRIOUSLY”, Syria to the table.
Lebanon is on a slow moving train. Every day they wait for something to happen “outside” to create new demands. Now they are waiting for the Arab summit…??? No one has talked about a vision for Lebanon; a country with laws and institutions and a constitution that have to be respected.
Whether there is a President or not it does not change the dynamic (only Batrak will be happy for a few days).
Once IT is up and running and suspects transferred out of Lebanon, March 14 will take a more pro active stand. Until then don’t hold your breath. Again, at this point in time I can see a convergence of interests in keeping the status quo between March 8 & 14
January 9th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Absouletly right!!! M14 should never agree to this ridiculous demand!!! So what is the benefit of being the majority?
January 9th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
awesome blog - interesting piece.. hope u enjoyed the safari
January 9th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Walla ya mus, from the little experience I got from Moussa’s last two visits and his political handling of the Lebanese Dilemma, I can tell you that his offer has been refused by Berri so far.
To prove my point, I find that Amr Moussa still has not publicly explained to his Lebanese audience the details of the initiative, but is rather telling everyone how fair and obvious it is.
I have a feeling that the initiative is being negotiated right now, after everyone is being cheated into accepting it.
My bet of what actually happened is that the Arab League made everyone agree to accepting its authority as a fair referee based on which Moussa was dispatched to Lebanon to negotiate the terms.
The few hours coming should make things clearer. I hope I’m wrong.
January 9th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
This is by far the STUPIDEST demand the opposition ever had! And just look at the explanation of the 10-10-10 formula; ennu so that M14 won’t be able to topple the government!!!
Either you are stupid…or you are stupid!!! Won’t the next Prime Minister be from M14? Even if M14 doesn’t have the blocking third, it’s enough for the PM to resign, and the government will be toppled.
And even if the PM is to be a neutral one ; as some of the geniuses of M8 has proposed, don;t they realize that M14 has the majority in the Parliament, and they can simply withdraw confidence from the government whenever they want, and so it will be toppled!!!!
Or maybe they are NOT stupid after all…they are simply following specific orders to NEVER agree on any solution, and keep the vacuum alive…don’t you think?
January 9th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
We should not be surprised by anything the so-called opposition says. Since when were they rational or sincere in their demands or intent. Even their lowly pathetic sympathizers who lurk around these blogs, with their unwavering insults and accusations, did they ever propose viable ideas or engage in open constructive dialog in the hope of finding common ground on what’s vital for Lebanon.
The bottom line remains it’s the tribunal and their weapons, they will not give up on anything since I believe they’re implicated with the assassinations and their weapons are their only card. I say enough wasting precise time offering concession after concession to these terrorists. How do you think Syria managed to deal with them over 30 years, with civil rational discourse or with brutal force? They only comprehend and respect the language of force and it’s about time M14 call their empty bluffs.
January 9th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
No surprises here. I agree with this post 100%. These are the very basic tenets of democracy (majority rule). Something I’ve been harping about ever since I started commenting on this blog. These consensus formulas are anything but democratic. About freaking time the idiots in Lebanon (like the Patriarch) finally start realizing it.
And no surprises about the Syrian MO: Making demands that can’t be met and if they are, add new demands. Again, something that some of us pointed out way back when, back when everyone was busy creaming their pants about “compromise” and “consensus”.
Why is it that people can’t seem to learn from the past?
January 9th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Z.H.
You are wrong. :)
The Arab League has ZERO clout (despite all the talking and initiatives). This initiative is destined to fail just like the previous 800 or so initiatives the Arab League ever proposed. Simply because they can talk all the way, and Syria can pretend to agree, and then push its cronies to torpedo it or make new demands, the same way they’ve been doing it for years.
Nothing to see here. There is no initiative. (in the voice of Obi Wan Kenobi)
January 9th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Excellent post!!!!!
That is my point which I tell everyone, why have elections from the first place and spend all that money for organizing it and giving money away to buy votes. We could just as well divide all of the parliamentary seats and government ones evenly and live with a consensus. What a bunch of idiots!
A very good point stated by Mo: “Killing accountability is not a way to run a country”.
If the economy is falling apart having a consensus government, who do we hold accountable? Well probably then nobody! That is quite good for these leaders since they can stay in power forever.
January 9th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Bingo, Ali. You nailed it.
Accountability has never been existent in Lebanese politics. And that’s been our biggest problem all along. That’s what enables these idiots to keep their seats time and again, without ever doing anything for the people they supposedly represent. And as you said, there’s absolutely no point in holding elections for this very reason. And this is why the Lebanese people have this fatalistic attitude, where they feel they can’t control their destiny.
It’s high time we start holding our leaders accountable and demand more from them.
January 9th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
BV,
A democracy is not about “majority rule”, but is about the protection of minorities and their rights. This attitude of “we will rule, and if they don’t like it, let them drink from the sea of Gaza” will bring you no-good. It’s not because I like HZB or the opposition; it’s because I think this way of things is dangerous for Lebanon.
.
January 10th, 2008 at 12:02 am
Amir,
You are confused. A charter of freedom and rights entrenched in your constitution protects rights…Not when irt comes to governing. majority rules!!!
January 10th, 2008 at 1:53 am
Mustapha, where is your source?
I found the opposition’s idea bad, but yours isn’t even an idea.
I saw on the news that Aoun wants 5 (for President) + 11 (Opposition) + 14 (Majority).
Notice though… the Oppositions demands are getting bigger?
What should we do?
Hold up a gun and follow me.
hahaha Peace and Good will to all… Lebanese are pissed off at ALL Politicians. They’re our clowns, and we feel united by their idiocies and supid statements.
January 10th, 2008 at 4:11 am
Mr. Amir and company….
The word democracy derives from the ancient Greek dimokratía (δημοκρατία) (literally, rule by the people) formed from the roots dimos (δημος), “people,”[4] “the mob, the many”[5] and kratos (κρατος) “rule” or “power”.
Parliamentary democracy where government is appointed by parliamentary representatives as opposed to a ‘presidential rule’ by decree dictatorship. Under a parliamentary democracy government is exercised by delegation to an executive ministry and subject to ongoing review, checks and balances by the legislative parliament elected by the people.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy#Forms_of_democracy
So, in your definition, Mr. Amir, Democracy is about protecting minority rights. So what will happen if March8 wins the next election? Do you still use that definition? Or, at that time, Democracy will mean “Majority rules”
January 10th, 2008 at 6:16 am
Amir, your definition is incorrect.
Democracy is about majority rule BUT with protection for minorities’ rights. So it’s a bit of both really. The point is, majority does get to rule and be held ACCOUNTABLE (this part is key!) by the people. So no, the minority does not go drink from the sea of Gaza. It gets to become the majority by appealing to the people and winning the next election, and gets its turn governing.
You should know. Last I checked, the PM in Israel gets to be elected by the people. The party with the MOST VOTES (majority) gets to govern until the next elections. This is also how it is done in the US (GOP or Democrats alternate governing based on how currently wins a majority), UK (Tories and Labor), France (Socialists and Rightists), etc.
The protection of rights (minorities, human rights, judicial, etc.) are key to a democracy, i agree. But that is not the deciding factor in WHO gets to govern. Rights are simply rights for every citizen. Who gets to govern, implement policy, etc, is a whole different matter. That is usually voted on by the people, with majority winners empowered to govern for a duration of time (until next election) and HELD ACCOUNTABLE (by both the judiciary, as well as by the people who have the power to vote them out next time around).
January 10th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Excellent post Moustafa to which I would like to add the following i f I may.
We Lebanese always pride ourselves (to the limit of arrogance) that we are the educated ones in the Middle East and are the craddle of all cultures, and still here we are discussing the meaning of DEMOCRACY and the rule of law.
In my own humble opinion (an opinion I have stated many times on different blogs)as long as our dear politician still entertain the notion of a setlement on the basis of “LA GHALEB WA LA MAGHLOUB” we (the people that is) will never see the end of our troubles. M14 should elect (should have from day one), and I do say ELECT not APPOINT a strong president who pledges to keep with the spirit of the cedar revolution. For those of us French educated “cohabitation” will not work with an orange deranged ex general and a yellow fanatic thug (the rest of the shhep are of no great significance). As for AL frequent attempts and visits (all of whom failed, and please do not tell me that it comes a s a surprise to anyone) they are just like the numerous ceasfires agreed upon during the war. Like Josey always said we (the people) are to blame, we are getting what we deserve for blindly following crooks and idiots.
I for one would like to see one side winning.
January 10th, 2008 at 9:00 am
M14 gave in to way too many concessions! They should’ve gone for the 50+1. There can be no compromises cause the opposition doesnt want any. The old formula no winner no loser is obsolete. There has to be a winner and a loser if we’re ever to break this deadlock.
January 10th, 2008 at 9:31 am
IMAGINE a Constitution that reads: Representatives “…shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust…”
As writ into the U.S. Constitution on September 17th, 1787.
January 10th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
The concept of “Democracy” is not understood in the Mid-East and it can’t be as long as this stupid “no winner/no loser” business prevails. Elections in a Democracy produce both winners and losers.
As long as “intimidation, threats, blackmail, appeasement and the “biggest gun” rule, there can be no real “Democracy”. As always - it is the citizens who ultimately allow this. Fear is what really rules.
January 10th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
I’ll reiterate what others have already said, for the simple reason that it’s what I’ve been saying all along:
No winner / No loser is NOT democracy. It is the very OPPOSITE of democracy. And it doesn’t work.
You guys are right: We, the Lebanese people allow and tolerate this, and we get EXACTLY what we deserve. We have no one to blame but ourselves. Period.
January 10th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
You’re absolutely right Mustapha, but you also leave out two other points. This would be the first step towards the “muthalatha” (thirds) option. Second, this would revive the disastrous “troika” formula of the early 1990s. What’s the fundamental issue with that? It reinstates Syria as the arbiter for any (inevitable) deadlock.
Finally, this is in line with the Syrian overriding concern since 2005: March 14 must be denied its majority status (akthariya wahmiyya).
Suleiman Frangieh had made it perfectly clear even before the Arab meeting. He explained that only with the Presidency can they hide behind the 2/3rds issue. After the election, the system is based on an absolute majority. The naming of the PM, the formation of the cabinet, etc. This is all governed by absolute majority, as the Patriarch said.
But Syria didn’t have a chance to kill enough MPs to bring it down to less than 50% +1.
January 10th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
And by the way, March 14 has already dismissed the 10×3 formula, as has Amr Moussa.
January 10th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Furthermore, this is also in line with Hasan Nasrallah’s vision for Lebanon which I have discussed on my blog in the past. This nullifies the concept of a parliamentary democracy in general. What’s the point, after all, of elections and institutions, if nothing can be settled except through Nasrallah’s acquiescence?
If a majority-minority dynamic is rejected, then you understand what Nasrallah means with his proposals, be they a permanent national unity government, prior agreements before even entering the cabinet (remember that proposal by Hezbollah?), and a “government of poles.” What you then have is a governing council of sorts, with Nasrallah as the “supreme guide” (as I argued in a post on my blog, ultimately Nasrallah seeks to clone structures of the Iranian Revolutionary regime in Lebanon).
Why have electoral institutions anymore?! Why have a parliament then? Why have a cabinet with a voting system on decisions, as stipulated by the constitution? Nasrallah decides how to rule.
January 10th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
+1 to what Tony just said.
This non-democracy is not new, but it also has to be seen within the context of Nassrallah and his vision for Lebanon.
There really isn’t anything surprising here. Not on the opposition’s side. Which is why I don’t understand why some people don’t really get what the opposition is doing. It’s clear as day. Everything Nassrallah and his sides have been demanding fits PERFECTLY into their vision of how things should work. This is no random stuff. It all adds up very easily.
January 16th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
[…] Perhaps it was the statement of the French Foreign Minister Mr. Kouchner in Riad where he threatened to go back to the UN in case the Arab League fails, or that of the Egyptian Foreign Minister rejecting the 10-10-10 solution that the opposition craved, or maybe that of the Egyptian President in which he threatened to boycott the Arab summit in Damascus if the Arab League’s Plan fails, or the Patriarch’s Sfeir’s not-so-tacit approval of “internationalization” as the best solution remaining. […]
February 21st, 2008 at 12:43 pm
[…] Rubbish! Mr. Hariri thundered to his Almustaqbal TV channel yesterday. The opposition is “distributing roles”, between a hardline Aoun who’s insisting on a blocking third, and a “made-in-Syria” proposition (10-10-10) floated by Mr. Berri. The formula, as regular readers to this blog know, is nonsensical. […]