Killing Sleiman’s Would-be Successor



News Analysis

As usual, today’s Beirut bombing carries many layers of symbolism.


(photo: Mohamed Azakir / Reuters , via the New York Times)

It is too early and information is still coming out of the bombing site, but here is what’s essential to know:

• The target, Brig. General François el Hajj was set to become the Army’s head if Mr. Suleiman was to become President.

• The killing took place in Baabda, where the presidential palace is located.

• The bomb exploded at the same date of Gebran Tueni’s assassination.

• The Army is one of the most trusted institutions in the country and was entrusted with civil peace.

• The bombing happened a day after another bomb that targeted the symbolic area of Ain Al Rimmaneh , where the Lebanese civil war started.

• While a common way to assassinate politicians, this is the first time an Army figure gets bombed this way.

• Brig. General Hajj holds a sensitive security position and his killing points to a serious security breach by non-amateurs

• The victim was one of the main architects of the Army’s assault on the Naher Al Bared camp.

• The bombing took place one day after the Syrian Vice President said that “Syria is the strongest ever in Lebanon today”

Many readings can be drawn from this attack. Was it designed to provoke the Army to over-react to provoke a backlash? Was it targeting civil peace to consolidate Syrian influence ? Was it a revenge killing for Naher Al Bared? Was it a personal threat to Mr. Suleiman?

It’s too early to know, this is why I would like to have your take on this. But let’s consider this provocative fact: Mr. Hage was said to be ideologically close to the opposition. Any takes?

Related Beirut Spring posts:

• I wrote a few weeks ago that the Army leader was very popular in Lebanon • A few months before, I wrote about the Army’s victory in Naher Al Bared and the popular support that entailed from the Lebanese. 

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Discussion

No comments for “Killing Sleiman’s Would-be Successor”

  1. I think it’s either a trap for the Army to over react and engulf it in the crisis, thus forcing it to loose its neutrality or it’s a retaliation for the Nahr el Bared battle. Could be both: two birds with one stone

    Who benefits from this killing except syria, Iran and their lebanese proxies?

    Posted by External Viewer | December 12, 2007, 7:25 am
  2. It’s way simpler than that; they’re taking out the unwanted people from sensitive position.

    So this is why they wanted to know the key position holders beforehand? they must be in real danger to act so bluntly.

    I am saying it is a blunt crime because it points directly to the murderers this time. This guy was a possible army commander and he had to be eliminated physically, since it wasn’t possible to eliminate him politically.

    Posted by Z. H. | December 12, 2007, 7:46 am
  3. It looks like an internal strugle in the army. some kind of succession war or smthg

    Posted by Ano | December 12, 2007, 8:09 am
  4. B S

    Posted by theCourtFool | December 12, 2007, 8:14 am
  5. Here we go again.Blamed to the Syrian.To the Security Syrian Aparatous.You make me sick to my ass.Have you Ignorants kids considered the hand of the M14 ?This guy was very,very,very much Anti-Israeli and very much outspoken of the Jew State.I’ll leave it there for you to comment…Damm Fools..Long live the General AOUN..

    Posted by Fadi ( U.S.A. ) | December 12, 2007, 8:21 am
  6. Fadi, didn’t I ask you to go to your Manar and Tayyar forums on my previous post??

    Who do you suggest did it? some Samir Geagea follower? or Walid Jumblatt’s? or perhaps Saad Hariri decided to twist the plot on the Lebanese scene because his broadcasting tv’s ratings went down and no one seems to be interested about the murder of his father anymore?

    As for your last comment, not all FPMers are hollow-headed like you and they’re disgusted of the poor old fool’s hallucinations about the presidency. Most of them even deserted him already. The remaining followers are not FPMers even.

    Posted by Z. H. | December 12, 2007, 8:34 am
  7. hehehe..you getting Smart now..yes that is what am suggenting…they are the one who did it,cuz the dont want him you fool.Wake up,how can you follow murderes (geagea)and thiefs(hariri)? you want me to tell you why? cuz they are not worst than you people.I never blame them at all,cuz they are smart.They laugh their ass out of you people.They step over ur head and you like fools, follow them.Is your choice anyways.But let me tell you something,you better start to consider the General as an alternative choice for you guys.i think that if you people side ourself with him your Cedar Revolution will came back to life,he is the one who started anyways bye staying 15 years on exile,while the rest where in Lebanon serving coffe to their one time Master(Syria)One think we can be agree on is that AOUN is the cleanest of all of them.Do you know what happened in Paris when AOUN and Hariri had their meeting two or three weeks ago?I dont think you do.Well let me bring some light to that small brain of our.Mr PIMP Hariri offered General AOUN the sum of ” 5(five) Billion” US Dollar if he side himself with M14(Saudi Money) and he refused.How you like that? Talk to me Z.H. Put your money where your mouth is and you will lose and be broke like your leaders…Long Live The General AOUN.

    Posted by Fadi ( U.S.A. ) | December 12, 2007, 9:37 am
  8. Fadi

    u r terribly stupid

    5 Billion US dollars ??

    Are u smoking something

    Posted by O.C. | December 12, 2007, 9:40 am
  9. Perhaps fatah al islam finally got around to making due on their threats of revenge outside the camp. Yes, it is still too early to even tell whos responsible but that seems like the best guess anyone could make at this point. In a few hours fingers will be pointed in every direction with the usual suspects; syria, opposition, any other number of lebanese political partys, israel etc. etc.. Keep in mind “not a single Lebanese assassination has been solved since 1976.” (R. fisk independent), will the pending investigation follow suit?

    ps. Do your family or neighbors in tripoli have any ideas on who is responsible?

    Posted by Karl S | December 12, 2007, 9:52 am
  10. Fadi,

    Sorry, but your post made me laugh out loud and everyone in the train was looking at me. Do you truly beleive that anyone can just offer 5 billion USD to someone else? And even less, Hariri? Do you really think he has that sort of money to give out? Saad inherited around 4 billion USD in assets, probably not much of it cash. The Saudi Oger empire is worth around 3 billion USD. How the hell can he offer 5 billion USD to Aoun? And to make things even funnier, you HONESTLY beleive anyone in the world would refuse 5 billion USD? You are a totally wacko and I am now wondering why I even bothered to reply to you. But hell since it’s written already…

    Posted by burger | December 12, 2007, 12:07 pm
  11. No idea what’s going on.

    Fatah el Islam angle?

    Wild thought, though I read the guy was very close to the opposition (??), could he have been a possible prez candidate himself (for M14)?

    I.e. a top army guy, friend of Suleimane, who could be elected by 50% + 1 (or is his post also prohibited from election??) ?

    Posted by JoseyWales | December 12, 2007, 12:13 pm
  12. During the Syrian occupation, the Syrian Army used to eliminate competitors (physically by assassination or by telling them not to run for that position) so their ally will win the position. I don’t have my hand on evidence, but I read it in one of the interview with some people. For example, head of the Communist Party, Labor Union to name a few!
    My second comment, who is second in command after Hajj?

    Posted by Ghassan | December 12, 2007, 12:30 pm
  13. y’all are interested in trying to figure out whodunnit like it’s some of kind of an agatha christie novel, it’s a fucking tragedy, and innocent people are dead, have we all gotten so desensitized by this that not even one comment shows sympathy for the dead guy or his family? he’s a human being for god’s sake, and all political parties are playing a dangerous game here and only fools fail to see right through it. my point is, all of them are guilty for reaching this point and everyone’s playing dirty, samir jaejae isn’t exactly reformed so it’s not always syria that has a bloody history. anyone who’s killed before would kill again, and that’s why they put murdered in jail for life or better, execute them. anyone could have done it, we’ll never find out, and it’s a pity that the country is losing more of its real men for old guys or criminals to remain. It’s very obvious that the U.S wants to realign the military to be less supportive of hizbollah and General Hajj was pro resistance for all we know. Just a thought~

    Posted by Malik El Batata | December 12, 2007, 12:59 pm
  14. Sleiman was visiting the lebanese troops and said Tuesday Lebanon’s “resurrection” started with the troops deployment in south Lebanon, stressing that the regular force would safeguard security, stability and public freedoms… And yest Mahmdou Kmati of hizz said aoun’s the only candidate for the opposition. Could this be a response to Suleiman’s message? Today Sejaan Azzi said Hajj was responsible for the training and rearmament of the army in cooperation with western military schools and insitutions, unlike previously with Syria… However SANA news agency said today it was Israel and its Lebanese agents who were behind the killing. Finally, would any of us be surprised if a video pops up on aljazeera and a hooded bearded man claims responsability for this “ghazwa”(conquest)to avenge the Nahr el Bared terrorists??? Not me anyways!
    PS: aoun was really anal and psychotic today

    Posted by Dania | December 12, 2007, 1:23 pm
  15. MalikBatata,

    Of course they’re human beings , and of course it’s terrible and of course they have families. You are right, we have become numb, maybe we have become all like Sawsan Darwish.

    The terrible thing is that the people in charge (sort of) and those targeted don’t seem to care: heard of anyone ask for any resignations, this time and in the past.

    Ecxept of course for Sabeh who resigned but came back (for other reasons).

    As to your theories which you were quick to lay on us, stick to batata.

    The US are no angels but that’s not how they do biz these days.

    The CIA is playing footsie with with Ahmadinejad, Muqtada Sadr is still running around Iraq, and the US can’t even drop some water on Osama Bin Laden (torture don’t u know) and you thing they killed the number 2 guy in the Leb army?

    Posted by Joseywales | December 12, 2007, 1:51 pm
  16. The Saddest Part of all of this is that Now we simply expect that this is Lebanon - if that is the case - you really have no futrure

    leaders always getting killed - assasination after assasination

    this will only change when Arab society changes

    Posted by Andrew The American | December 12, 2007, 2:03 pm
  17. The sad part is that we ignored Mustapha’s post and started fighting among ourselves, albeit with words; Or maybe Mus wanted to watch a dogfight. Dirty you.

    Ironically, we should be thankful for the desensitization, which prevents violent reaction from two very divided schools of ‘thought’ in Lebanese politics.

    Posted by Z. H. | December 12, 2007, 2:15 pm
  18. Josey - all the Generals are “grade one” employees and would have to sit out for two years or have an amendment.

    Am I the only one who wonders what General Sleiman thinks about Aoun naming his successor in the Army, the Prime Minister, the new Cabinet Ministers AND the Ministerial statement? Let’s not forget the whole 2 year term. These are all the Presidents prerogatives, and yet Aoun is claiming them for himself. General Hajj was very close to Aoun - I don’t know how close he was to HA.
    Who would he be “loyal” to as Army Commander? Sleiman, Aoun, Nasrallah or someone else?

    I hear the Sleiman option is almost dead in the water, and the “opposition” is going back to Aoun as their candidate. I predict we will hear more about the advantages of Army control in Lebanon, or perhaps the orangettes will take to the street as they considered General Hajj one of their own. The Syrian plan for Lebanon is always chaos and this will certainly add to it.

    Posted by Ace | December 12, 2007, 2:30 pm
  19. all the Generals are “grade one” employees

    Did not know that. Thanks Ace.

    Posted by JoseyWales | December 12, 2007, 2:38 pm
  20. Dear Fadi,

    You mentioned “They step over ur head and you like fools, follow them.” Let me see.. You follow your stupid psycho General.

    He said when he was collecting welfare money in France that he is against Syria , La77ouss, and Hizbo. You followed him and you were repeating like a parrot what he was saying. Now, since two years ago, he came back to Lebanon. He is with Hizbo, La77ouss and for sure Syria. Yet you follow him again. And you repeat what he said like parrot… again. I thought at one point that Shia are the dumb followers for Hizbo. Now I see some other followers did exceed Shia in blind following. It’s you guys…General psycho Aoun followers.

    Brig. General Hajj was one of the main architects of the Army’s assault on the Naher Al Bared camp. Hizbo was against that. You remember the infamous Red Zone that Mr. “Divine Victory” suggested. Mr. “Divine Victory” is worried about his ass. It could be next.

    So Dear Fadi… Why don’t you leave us and go read your Tayyar propaganda.

    Dear Fadi… I do not know if someone told you yet. Psycho General Aoun has ZERO chances in the presidency. There is no scenario that can put your psycho General in Baabda. M8 candidate for presidency is “no one”!

    LebanesePatriot

    Posted by LebanesePatriot | December 12, 2007, 2:59 pm
  21. The assassination of of Hajj is simply part of a conspiracy to kill the most promising leading figures of Lebanon, too bad aoun is not part of them.

    Posted by External Viewer | December 12, 2007, 3:47 pm
  22. If a large percent of Lebanese youth are as deadheaded as Fadi, the Dark Age of Lebanon is certain to continue. IMO the inability of large masses to reason beyond Medieval standards has been and continues to be demonstrated clearly.

    Posted by JAS | December 12, 2007, 5:15 pm
  23. This is a message to Sleiman pure and simple. First came Berri’s delaying tactic in amending the constitution then came the glorified Hizb’s stance that the Orange general is their only candidate then came this. Message is if Sleiman dares be neutral and not be a carbon copy of Lahoud then here is what we can do. This is also a reminder to Berri that in the unlikely event he ever regains any sense of national decency that the long arm of Bashar can reach anyone.

    Posted by MM | December 12, 2007, 6:01 pm
  24. I agree with MMsays. This was a warning to Suleiman and a reminder of what to expect if he ever warmed up to M14. The general has been flirting with the majority and even hinting at implementing UN resolutions as a way to assure M14 that he shares some of their views. The opposition’s waffling on his candidacy is also an indication of displeasure with some of his views though they are not very well defined. This is also an attempt at undermining the Army as the legitimate protector of Lebanon. This situation gets more and more dangerous and yet our wonderful and wise leaders choose to hurl insults and accusations at one another.

    Posted by JAT | December 12, 2007, 6:38 pm
  25. [...] Mustapha at Beirut Spring: [...]

    Posted by Right Wing Nut House » LEBANON BLEEDS AS COMPROMISE SLIPS AWAY | December 12, 2007, 7:24 pm
  26. I think Lebanon needs a military government now for 12 months at least, to clean everything out. Let them impose a state police that can find all these assassins.
    And let them find a few collaborators and hang them publicly in front of all.

    Posted by Libanus | December 12, 2007, 9:11 pm
  27. I second a takeover coup by the military

    Posted by EV | December 12, 2007, 9:16 pm
  28. when are real lebanese (not syrian/iranian trained/brainwashed hezbollah thugs) going to fucking stand up and give syria a kick to the balls?? come on already!! its better to die fighting than to serve on your knees.

    Posted by anthem boy | December 13, 2007, 12:54 am
  29. Mostapha,

    Glad to see your posting. I hope your enjoying your time in qut3at al-sama’ Lubnan.

    I think this is the point where all the Arabs come out and make up their conspiracy theories which can often be pretty ridiculous. I don’t know who did this, but I think what matters more is what the implications of this are and how to save the country.

    Posted by Abu Hatem | December 13, 2007, 2:12 am
  30. “Who benefits from this killing except syria, Iran and their lebanese proxies?”

    You see, now that is bullshit, cummon. Imagine how happy Hezbollah would be to have Speaker of Parliament, President AND military commander as friendlies? All they have left is the cabinet and PM - which will be renewed after the President is elected!

    I mean this was the best thing that could happen to them, ensured that the cabinet would step down.

    Posted by Lover | December 13, 2007, 2:30 am
  31. This extreme confusion and the Status quo will come to an end very soon. The coming two weeks-crucial in the current turmoil-will unravel one of two things. Either Sleiman will preside in Baabda or the Vacuum will preside in the streets. In my opinion the Vacuum will prevail and chaos will decide the forthcoming events. None of you had commented on the ‘dahieh’ uprising few days ago, brought to an end by the army. This futile event was the instigator of something bigger followed by a grenade in Ain el remaneh and culminating with the assasination of Hajj. If one analyses the syrian comments-if Lebanon does not elect a president it is not the end of the world-and the above mentionned events, will understand that the opposition is ready to take control specially that the international pressure has been lifted from Syria and the Europeans are showing signs of cooperation-what jumblat had picked up long before-. What does this mean? very simply, the equation says if the assasinations brought the majority to its concession and brought with it the international pressure to a halt, its time to ‘harvest the crop’! The lieutenant hajj assasination is nothing but a message to the Army and to what it represents -the last stronghold on the terrane- that if Sleiman favoured by the majority and its allies Egypt, the Saudis and Jordan thinks of stopping M8 from achieving its final objectives he would have crossed the red line( already not honoured when Hassan Nasrallah drew it during the nahr el bared war) This is a clear reminder to the Army that it did not honour the red line once and it is forbidden to independntly control security on the ground. The message was swift and clear, even the highest ranked officers within the army and its whole intelligence apparatus are within reach and could be brought to its knees. How much could the army ad its General-president- resist(he already refused concessions to Aoun and his allies)no one knows. Our only hope is that the army does not become vulnerable to all these intimidations. My fellow Lebanese I will be very honest with you, I sadly believe that the M14 uprising is nothing but history(missed opportunity) the events that will unravel shortly will demonstrate my feelings. Gen Sleiman unfortunately is not that solid! (he planned to flee Lebanon(with a false French passport) after the Syrian troops withdrawl, fearing reprisal against him. We need Strong courages leaders to surmount what is coming further. I am afraid no one will carry joubran and Pierre’s torch.

    Posted by dory | December 13, 2007, 7:58 am

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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.

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