Trick Or Treat?
Nabih Berri’s words sound good, but can he deliver?
(Photo: The Daily Star)
“Now I say despite all that has passed, forgive us, let us all accept presidential elections through consensus and through a quorum of two-thirds, and the opposition will drop its demand for a national unity or expanded government before the elections,”
Thus declared Nabih Berri, our Speaker of the house, his latest initiative.
On the face of it, a change of heart of this magnitude -letting go of the opposition’s most objectionable demand- deserves to be rewarded with an equally significant concession, especially that everyone, not only Mr. Berri, wants to “save the country”.
But March 14 shouldn’t rush to hug Mr. Berri and should instead indulge their cynical instincts.
The Lebanese want more than ever to agree among themselves, and Mr. Berri is more desperate than anyone for a settlement, but March 14 has the right to ask: What has changed since his last initiatives?
It’s obvious that Syria’s meddling didn’t go away. Only yesterday one of Assad’s pawns accused Mr. Seniora on Live TV to want to kill Sayyed Nassrallah. Does that sound like a Syria that wants an internal settlement? How can Mr. Berri convince us that Syria no longer dictates what he does?
More suspicious is the suddenness of the U-turn. What happened to the opposition’s mantra: “A National unity government is the only, I repeat, the only, solution?”
Watching Iran has made us believe that its proxies often use tactical friendliness (Palestinian Unity government, the hiwar in Lebanon, and recently Muqtada El Sadr’s 6 months unilateral ceasefire in Iraq) to negotiate power-sharing arrangements only to break them later and take over completely. Why is it different now Mr. Berri?
Nevertheless, March 14 shouldn’t be hostile to Mr. Berri and they should explore together his proposals.
Complete disregard of his offer is bad negotiation etiquette and could be damaging politically (Is Mr. Berri right? does March 14 want to control the country?). Moreover, March 14 needs Berri’s help to diffuse potential minefields (Syrian lackeys and Aoun)
Perhaps something good could come out of this delicate dance, but it would be wise not to hold your breath.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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Timeo Berris, et Berrim Ferentes…
Et tu Stef? (since we’re doing latin)
Like many analysts and press writers in Leb you still believe a savior or statesman or deal-maker is going to come out of that empty shell called Berri?
That train has left the station Baby.
Berri’s initiative is in fact the same old crap in new clothing. Think about it for a while, why did the opposition want a “national unity” government prior to the elections in the first place, when the constitution clearly states that the cabinet shall be considered resigned when the new president takes office? It was not to facilitate elections in any way, but rather, to give the opposition a safety net in case there is no agreement on the presidency: either the president was to be approved by the opposition (or they will quit the unity government and/or boycott the elections), or there’s no president the unity government remains in power indefinitely. Any opposition approved president would, in turn, be a clone of Lahoud who refuses to sign in any government that does not give the opposition a veto power, which is really what all the opposition initiatives have been about.
So, now Berri is saying that the opposition is willing to forego the veto power for two months, if they get to pick a president that will guarantee the opposition a veto power for the next six years. It’s not a concession, it’s just a different way to dress up the old demand of unconditional power to veto all policies that are not to HA/Amal’s liking: the international tribunal, ending weapons smuggling from Syria, disarming Hezbollah, and whatever else.
Unfortunately the level of trust between the two camps is at an all time low and to that end I can only but agree with Jay’s comment.
Jeha,
Sorry, i didn’t understand your comment :)
Josey, Jay & Tony
So yes, you agree, let’s all be cynical. But are you saying that we shouldn’t explore what Berri could have in his proposal, if only for political decorum’s sake?
I completely agree with Jay.
It’s obviously a really bad trick. Giving up the demand for veto power in a present unity government is a meaningless and irrelevant concession. The fact that it comes with a ‘consensus’ President illustrates that fact. Just like Jay said, any consensus candidate is likely to demand a unity government that gives the opposition veto power. Basically agreeing to this plan is surrendering all the decision making institutions of the state to the opposition and specifically Hezballah. Lebanon will have a ‘consensus’ President that has no independent views and will try to appease all the sides. The result is indecision and the Presidential level. The opposition will have veto power in the government, so again indecision at the government level. And since Berri is the President of the National Assembly and in practice he pretends he is ‘Emperor’ of Lebanon there will be indecision in parliament. Berri has ‘absolute’ power in parliament. Also as a result of the disagreements about quorum in parliament, the opposition can in effect veto anything in parliament.
Since when does a minority control all states institutions? They already control everything on the ‘ground’. They have their own military, economic, social and political institutions and they have already defined the nations foreign policy and they have sabotaged the nations domestic security and economy with their actions in the last 2 years.
Iran and Syria don’t want peace in Lebanon! I will not trust Berri and Hizb-Iran and the lastest offer is just to give them a veto power over who will be the next president!
I think March 14 should accept this proposal only as part of a package that includes a “consensus” Speaker of Parliament.
Stef,
We all agree that we should explore many things, but NOT with people who cannot deliver and/or who are just playing games. Berri has lost all credibility and is NOT paing a price for it.
Decorum’s sake: MP’s (and US Senators) often pretend and says things like “my esteemed colleague” and “my respected friend” because they know they will be “working” with these people down the road. Useless here.
Berri keeps commanding a fake-modicum of respect in the press and the international community precisely because no one in Lebanon (other than Joumblatt) is telling it like it is and putting pressure on the scum.
Homo Libanus;
“consensus” Speaker of Parliament.
Brilliant idea.
Mustapha,
Actually I agree with you that March 14 should discuss the presidency with the opposition. But I’ve thought so even before Berri’s initiative. It’s simple really… M14 already has multiple candidates, so all they need to do is go to the opposition with the list of their candidates and ask, “If you don’t boycott the ballot, we’ll let you decide which one of these chumps gets to be the president. Otherwise we’ll elect mr. Crackpot McRadical (i.e. a hardcore March 14 partisan) on our own.”
Mustapha,
Sure, March 14 should explore any serious initiative which is presented to them so long as they remain solid to the ideals of an independent Lebanon.
I would really love to know who Mr Berri and his allies will consider as a concensus candidate – is General Sleiman their only candidate?
JW, Libanus:
let’s take the idea a step ahead… what about a “consensus oposition”
:)
Other than that, I agree with Jeha: take care with berri gifts… it may explode in your face
Lebanon/Israel: Hezbollah Smear Campaign Won’t Silence Report:
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2007/08/29/lebano16763.htm
[...] Read this strange reading of Berri’s initiative, or “initiative” (with quotation marks) as tayyar.org likes to refer to it. Apparently, according to their reading, Mr. Berri never said he was giving up the national unity government, he was simply trying to find a middle way to appease as much international players as possible. [...]
[...] Berri’s Initiative: Made In Syria | September 18th, 2007 According to Alhayat, Syria has claimed ownership of Berri’s initiative and is waiting for Washington and Riad’s reply: ???? ???? ??????? ????????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ???? ????? ????? ?????????? ?? «??????»? ?????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ????????? ???????? ????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ?????? ??? ?? ??? ????????? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ??? ????? ???? ?????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ?????????. ?????? ??????? ????? ?? ????????? ???????? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ???? ????? ???? ?? ????? ???????? ???? ???? ???? ??? ???????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????. [...]