3 Questions Sunday’s Elections in Beirut Will Answer

The municipal elections will be taking place this weekend, and while they may seem like a minor event in the large scheme of things, they will help answer big questions about the future of Politics in Lebanon.

1- Have Lebanese Politics Been Disrupted ?

It is easy to forget that when the Lebanese last held an election — ages and ages ago — there was a completely different geopolitical, technological and media landscape. There was no Arab Spring or Syrian civil war. The internet was a mere curiosity in universities and privileged homes. People mostly got their news from TV and newspapers. If you really think of it, it was as if we lived in a completely different age.

Since free and fair elections are the only true way to gage a political landscape, we will know after Sunday whether the political landscape has shifted in any meaningful way. In other words:

2- How much Hold on The People do Traditional Politicians still Have?

While it is common to hear people cursing at politicians and demonstrating against them as a class, the fact remains that when push came to shove, the Lebanese have always supported and voted for traditional parties and confessional leaders.

Will these elections mark a break from that tradition? Will the issues (trash, traffic ..etc) and accountability play a bigger part of voters’ choices than tribal and factional loyalties this time?

3- How Influential are Lebanese Social Media Activists and Bloggers?

I happen to live in a bubble of Lebanese bloggers and online and media personalities. All of them to a person seem to be supporting Beirut Madinati’s list. I see tens of thousands of Likes and shares for their posts and their pleas for support. I am struggling to find a single person among my 800 Facebook friends who is supporting the other list.

In my small corner of the internet, Beirut Madinati is the Goliath and the establishment list is the David, i.e. the poor upstart that will be eaten alive. People in my bubble would be shocked, shocked, if the other list won.

Are we that disconnected from the “real” Beirut? Is Facebook’s Algorithm so efficient at hiding things we don’t like from us ? Or is something bigger truly happening, and social media elites are managing to steer the popular conversation in Lebanon?

Only Sunday will tell.