Lebanon, Beware the Promise of a Saudi Hard Line

Despite its flaws, Lebanon’s dissociation policy remains its only hope for stability and survival

The foot is down. The Saudis could no longer take the dithering of its allies in Lebanon, so they decided to take action: Lebanon will no longer benefit from a previously promised $3 Billion dollar in Saudi aid to its legitimate armed forces. We now know what this is about: (emphasis mine)

The [Saudi] Cabinet stated that its support of the Lebanese people […] was aimed at ensuring the country’s security, stability and sovereignty. This “honorable stance” was met with hostility by lebanon at regional and international forums

Translation: What triggered this was what the Saudis perceived as a weak condemnation by Lebanon of the Iranian mob’s attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran back in early January. The Saudis felt betrayed by Gebran Bassil’s wishy-washy statement and concluded that there’s too much Iran sauce in it. In reality, that statement was a typical expression of the Lebanese government’s ongoing dissociation policy, aka the Baabda Declaration (trying as much as possible not to take sides in the Iran-Saudi cold war)

The Siren call of the Hard Line

It is still not clear whether the Saudi action was driven by genuine despair (“Lebanon is a lost cause”), or by a desire to spur action by its Lebanese allies to turn the table on Hezbollah. It is more likely the latter, as both French and Saudi sources are hinting that the decision may not be final, and the Saudis are apparently seeking an apology from official Lebanon.

Some Lebanese supporters of Saudi Arabia are already rising to the incentive. Minister Ashraf Rifi resigned his governmental post and went to the Saudi embassy to apologise. Nadim koteish, a March 14 stalwart and a Saudi darling, has argued that March 14 should grow some balls and take drastic measures:

Let the second of March be the deadline. We either get a full quorum and elect a Lebanese president, or the government should resign to lay bare Hezbollah’s ongoing project of keeping a void in Lebanon

Can Harirism Survive?

The resignation of the Lebanese government is the red line that none of the rational and responsible Lebanese leaders wants to cross. It will create the kind of void that –and it pains me to use this cliché– throws us into a dangerous unknown. Lebanon’s policy of dissociation, the one that resulted in angering the Saudis, was a rare moment of enlightenment among the Lebanese. A mature decision taken by foes, hard beaten by a long civil war, to stay out of the brewing regional storm.

One of those rational leaders is Saad Hariri. But this may not last long. The newly emboldened Saudi Arabia has departed from its long history of caution, square rounding and quiet influence. The biggest casualty of that transformation may be Harirism itself, the philosophy crafted by the late Rafik Hariri and previous Saudi administrations, which maintained that non confrontation, quiet moderation and relentless work behind the scenes will always carry the day at the end.

So far, Hariri has resisted the calls to withdraw from the government. Instead he’s trying to placate the Saudis by proving, using a petition, that the Lebanese people actually supports the Saudis. Meanwhile, Minister. Ashraf Rifi is playing his own game, possibly trying to prove to the new Saudis that he can be their strongman in the country. That seems to be gaining favor with some of the frustrated Lebanese. As Walid Jumblat has tweeted: “Rifi is leading the crowds. [but] where to I do not know”. Here’s to hoping that it will lead back to sanity.

Note: This post originally appeared on my blog