Jumblat’s Irish Peace

Something is cooking in Mukhtara

— Could this be where Lebanon’s future is built? —

The sage of the mountains may have his quirks, but one of his redeeming qualities is his ability to gaze into the future and start planning. His next plan: Disarming Hezbollah amicably using a long term peace process inspired by the Good Friday Agreement that helped bring peace to Northern Ireland.

In his recent Kalam el Nass interview, Mr. Jumblat focused many times on “oranizing our internal affairs”, and he kept mentioning the irish peace process as a good model. For those who don’t know, the Belfast Agreement came out of a process that took a long time, most of which was spent on building trust and imagining a mutually beneficial future for the northern Irish people.

The British Ambassador in Beirut, no doubt happy with the prospect that his country may play a role in bringing lasting peace to Lebanon, jumped at the opportunity and tweeted this this moring:

The symbolic overtones of this trip should not be missed on anyone.

In search of a long term plan

Mr. Jumblat’s movement on this issue is based on two assumptions:

• The Syrian regime is finished
• The Taef Agreement is showing its age

Mr. Jumblat realizes that Hezbollah now has to make a strategic choice after the demise of the Syrian regime: Push with further militarization and isolation, or fully integrate with the Lebanese state. He calculates that what might tip the scales towards the second option is more political and economic empowerment for Lebanon’s Shiaas.

Walid Jumblat’s message seems to be: Now is the best time to make an historic agreement with Lebanon’s Shiaas. It will take time, effort and concessions from all sides, but the payoff could be a peaceful, sovereign country with one government and one Army.

Update:

I was informed by Ambassador Fletcher that one of the people he and Mr. Jumblat are planning to meet during their trip to the UK is Professor Michael Kerr, author of the book: “Imposing Power-Sharing: Conflict and Coexistence in Northern Ireland and Lebanon”. This trip could well turn out to be the seed for something big, so I suggest we read up on this book (which I heard is pretty good) in preparation for the visit.

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If you believe that this blog deserves to be recognized as such, kindly vote for it at www.smabeirut.com. It will take two seconds and you’ll have my eternal grattitude..