Bending With the Wind

The supporters of Iran and the Syrian regime in Lebanon suffered a big blow with the fall of Mikati’s government. But don’t count them out just yet.

In politics, symbols speak louder than words. While all sides are talking about reconciliation, a government for everyone or a “national salvation” government (with the exception of the absurdly triumphalist media of Hariri’s future movement), there is no mistaking the political affiliation of Mr. Tammam Salam or the circumstances of his annointment.

Symbols on all sides point to winners and losers. Mr. Salam’s use of Mr. Hariri’s private jet in Saudi Arabia, the body language in the photo above, Mr. Aoun’s symbollic refusal to name Mr. Salam as PM, all these point to a radically different environment than the one that governed the “one way ticket” days.

Adapt or lay low

In lebanese politics there is no such thing as a knockout blow. Parties largely retain their popular support, but the external conditions dictate whether or not they get the spoils of ruling. Members of the March 8 alliance are now faced with a choice: Adapt to the new environment or wait it out. Their choice will depend on the prospects of the situation in Syria.

One person who seems to be adapting is Mr. Nabih Berri. He is portraying his political pivot to the “center” as a “shielding lebanon from the neighboring war”. Like Mr. Jumblat, Mr. Berri’s overriding concern is his network of patronage and political fiefs (like his everlasting hold on the ministry of Foreign Affairs). A little distance from Hezbollah can also be sold as an effort to reconcile Sunnis and Shiaas.

Hezbollah are playing the wait-and-see game. They did this before when they survived (and thrived) after Syria’s humiliating exit from Lebanon in 2005. Hezbollah play a long game, and they’re probably going through some strategic assessment (alongside Iran) regarding Syria.

Bitter Oranges

Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) finds itself in a real bind. They feel betrayed by what appears to be backstabbing by their allies, but they are biting their bitterness and trying to play along because they don’t have other options. Their Marada ally Sleimen Franjieh is too deep in with Syria’s Bashar al Assad to do anything.

But while things are looking grim for March 8, don’t count anyone out just yet. In this game of Lebanese politics, you either win, or you lie low and win next time.

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