The Day Everything Changed ?

A family on a mission

Many historians will mark Wednesday, August 15, 2012 as the day Lebanon officially got drawn into the Syrian maelstrom. One can make the case for other dates, like when Syrian artillery began shelling Lebanese territory, or when Michel Samaha was caught red-handed trying to plant bombs in the north, but there is something very primal, very slippery-slopey and dangerous about armed tribes conducting tit-for-tat abductions in daylight and ignoring the stunned, powerless and irrelevant government.

We are still at the beginning of what might turn out to be a very hot summer. I expect other major events to take place soon. The Mokdad family, with behind the scenes support from Hezbollah1, is asking for trouble. The response to their brazen action may take many shapes, from complete expulsions of Lebanese citizens in Gulf nations, to sting operations funded by the regional backers of the Syrian revolution to teach that family a lesson and liberate their captives. This will drive us deeper into a vicious spiral.

Nightmare

The actions and counter actions can quickly get out of control. Youth groups in Shia neighbourhoods are already setting up roadblocks searching passing cars for Syrian citizens. Vital roads are getting blocked and others are getting blocked in response. Hotheads in Tebbaneh in the north might decide to take it on the Allawis in Jabal Mohsen. Before we know it, a cycle of revenge and kidnapping and the bare-faced sectarian nature of the struggle could result in an abhorrent massacre somewhere, and massacres beget massacres. We’ve seen that movie before.

Moreover, the economic pressure of losing top-spending Arab tourists, the widespread strikes over salaries and entitlements and the stress over dysfunctioning utilities and infrastructure will add tremendous pressure on the over-extended police and army to keep law and order. This will further increase the social ills and the crime waves, and the Lira will start feeling pressure as growth slips and the debt piles up, not to mention the potentially immense burden of supporting the Lebanese who might be catastrophically sacked from some gulf nations.

It is not clear yet how transformative all of this will be. Could Lebanon become part of the larger Syrian problem and get included in the expected post-war “reconfiguration” of borders based on ethnicities and religions? It all depends on how fast things escalate from here and on how fast everyone can climb back from the brink.

This nightmarish future is not as far fetched as it sounds, and everyone in Lebanon needs to work very fast to put this genie back in the bottle. We are living in dangerous times.

1. I find it very difficult to believe that Hezbollah was not helping the “armed faction” of the Moqdad family. The logistical challenges of kidnapping so many activists across the Lebanese territories, coupled with the monitoring of foreigners also across the country, suggests that Hezbollah is at least helping them logistically. ↩