Give This National Dialogue a Chance

Despite many failed attempts at national dialogue in the past, there are reasons to hope the upcoming one is the real deal.

Many national dialogues have come and gone

Insanity, according to Albert Einstein, is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results every time. The Lebanese have tried national dialogues many times before and failed. Wouldn’t it be insane to even think that the next one could be any different?

There are many reasons to be skeptical and pessimistic. This could all be theatre designed to diffuse the alarming street tension. It could be a conspiracy of politicians trying to divvy up the next parliamentary elections. It could also start with good intentions and then bump into the usual hurdles: Hezbollah’s weapons, the International Tribunal and other knotty issues. Why even bother going through all of that again?

Something big is happening next door

The reason why this time it could be different is the change expected to take place in Syria. The eventual fall of the Assad regime is an event of such a magnitude that a strategic realignment is all but inevitable. Many players in Lebanon will be facing a new reality, a reality that requires new thinking and new alliances.

Let’s be clear: The end of the Syrian regime will not bring with it the end of Hezbollah’s influence. The party of God is genuinely popular in Lebanon with or without its weapons. The exit of Assad would simply cause Hezbollah, like Iran, to re-imagine the kind of influence it wants to have in Lebanon. Hezbollah has a vested interest in reaching a deal over its weapons while it’s still in a strong position.

A Delicate Dance

Hezbollah is a proud party and its supporters are even prouder. Any whiff of triumphalism by the other side will burry the talks before they start. Public trust-building measures like Hariri’s help with the Shiaa pilgrims should precede the talks. Both sides should contain popular tension as much as they can through their media before they sit on a roundtable.

Most importantly, expectations should be managed. Hezbollah will not give up all their weapons. March 14 will not suddenly become Lebanon’s pre-eminent political force and Oqab Sakr will not be Lebanon’s next speaker of parliament.

What can a successful dialogue achieve?

In my opinion, these would be outcomes of a successful dialogue:

• Hezbollah and the Future Movement declare major cities free of weapons of all kinds and vow to help legitimate authorities run a gun buyback program. Military parades in Dahieh will become a thing of the past.
• Hariri declares his support for Hezbollah’s weapons “aimed at Israel” (implicit: weapons far from cities and population centers)
• There will be some form of political concession that would give Shiaas a bit more power in government
• Concrete and symbolic steps to further decentralization
• An election law based on proportionality that will be implemented in the 2017 elections (ie once cities become truly free of weapons)
• A big handshake, camp-david style, between Saad Hariri and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who would both be physically present at the signing of the peace deal. President Sleiman would be the one standing in the middle with a big grin and open arms

If you can think of any other outcomes of a similar vein, please voice off in the comments section. If you disagree, I would also like to hear why. Remember, this is a negotiation between two powerful sides and for every give, there should be a take.