Waking Up to the Realities in Syria

If you’re locked in a Lebanese news bubble where, depending on your position, the Syrian opposition either doesn’t exist or is just short of storming Assad’s Bastille, you’ll be excused to have missed the parallel universe in which a realistic discussion is taking place on the balance of power, compromise and altogether unsavory diplomatic sausage-making that uses sentences like “the hard realities on the ground”.

In Syria, the expectations were demoted from the Tunisian scenario to the Egyptian scenario, and then to the Libyan scenario. Now, it seems that even a Yemeni scenario could be out of reach. We could be left with a choice between the Zimbabwe scenario (a power sharing deal in which Assad keeps the lion’s share of power) or a civil war where the opposition is less peaceful and more islamised.

The situation is very fluid. There could be a sudden denouement or things could drag on forever. Some are optimistic in the long run, and some are downright gloomy. But one thing is for sure: Clarity itself is lost, and the Lebanese media and politicians would do well to adapt.