❊ March 14’s Giant Leap of Faith

Ex PM Saad Hariri at Biel today:

Lebanon is headed towards a new political phase due to the Arab Spring and the beginning of the end of the Syrian regime […] I will bear the responsibility of my solidarity with the Syrian people.

With these words, Mr. Hariri thrust into the spotlight the greatest political gamble of March 14’s life.

— We’re in this together —

In essence, the group previously known as the “anti-Syrian camp” is now betting its future on the demise of Assad, expecting it to bring a transformation in Lebanon that will bring back normalcy to political life. (i.e a situation in which Hezbollah can no longer dictate its terms based on the power of its arms). Pick your metaphor: They’re burning the boats, they’re betting the farm, they’re not looking back, they’re taking the plunge…You get the idea.

I’m not sure how I feel about this. On one hand, I can’t see any way in which the Assad family will survive in power. March 14 might as well back the regime’s opponents and reap the political dividends of the change at the top. Moreover, the perception of inevitability could by itself help tip the balance, and most Arab governments, Arab media, the west and even Walid Jumblat have already thrown caution to the wind and burned all their bridges with the Syrian regime.

On the other hand this can be a very risky move. The situation in Syria is far from clearcut and could get messy for a really long time. Does March 14 really want to stake everything on a neat outcome in which one Syrian side triumphs over the other? What if things dragged on and got really grubby? Let’s assume that after the elections of 2013 March 14 get a thumping majority and form a government while Assad is still in power. Would it back its rhetoric with action, abandon Lebanon’s current policy of dissociation and allow the country to become a safe haven for the Free Syrian Army? What if Syria got divided into statelets? What if Syria had a power-sharing agreement in which the NSC’s relationship with March 14 will have to be sacrificed? Can March 14 guarantee that Lebanon won’t be dragged into the conflict in all its ugliness and chaos?

It might sound like I prefer Mikati’s current non-alignment policy, but I really don’t because I believe it’s not an honest policy and that it is a front for a discreet pro-Assad bias. I just hope that the strategists of March 14 are preparing contingency plans for the various potential outcomes in Syria. This is a dangerous game and the future of our peace and stability is at stake. I hope they know what they’re doing.