❊ The French Armenian Genocide Bill. A Political Minefield for Lebanon

— Faceoff —

On the surface of it, this news item seems unrelated to Lebanon:

France’s parliament voted Monday to make it a crime to deny that the killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks nearly a century ago constituted a genocide, risking more sanctions from Turkey and complicating an already delicate relationship with the rising power.

But consider the three players in this drama:

• France: Lebanon’s former colonial master and a country that still wields cultural and political influence. More recently, many Lebanese are looking to the French for leadership against the dictatorial regime of Bashar el Assad in Syria
• Armenians: One of Lebanon’s most important and vocal minorities who have considerable political power and who are very attached to their Armenian heritage, history and culture.
• Turkey: Rising regional power, looked up at by many Lebanese and Arabs (especially Sunnis) as the Democratic Muslim nation that will counter the influence and expansion of revolutionary Iran, and that is pressuring the Syrian regime to stop killing its people

The French bill is a momentous moment for the world’s Armenians. Shouldn’t the Lebanese government officially release a message congratulating Lebanese Armenians? But then the Turks are mad. Raging bull mad. Their anger is so strong that anything that touches that “racist”, “anti-freedom of speech” bill will likely get a red-eyed stare and some punishment to boot. That and the fact that a lot of Lebanese don’t want the government to annoy the Turks. Would it be prudent for the Lebanese government to rub it in? What should the Lebanese official stance be?

Enter Mr. “Dissociation”

Believe it or not, I think that Mr. Mikati’s “dissociation” policy is the ideal way to go here. I’ve criticized that policy when used with Syria or the STL because it’s a sham, a cover up to hide our weakness by pretending that we’re distancing ourselves when we are not. But the situation with Turkey, France and the Armenians is the real deal. These are really parties we care about who are fighting, and it is really in our country’s interest not to appear to be taking sides.

The good news is that we put our best man for the job on it. PM Mikati, Mr. centrist, Mr. I-wont-offend-anyone is due in Paris in a couple of weeks. He will be needing all the blandness he can muster.