❊ Post Assad Syria’s Effect on Lebanese Politics

I really like Hanin Ghaddar, but I find this conclusion to her article on Syria bordering on naive:

There will be no space for either March 8 or March 14 in the post-Assad era in Lebanon. They will be replaced by new, dynamic leaders who act as fitting counterparts to the new political breed in Syria.

I’m a big fan of the Arab Spring, but from what I’ve seen so far, here’s how I would describe what will happen in Lebanon should Assad fall:

1- We should allow for the possibility of a nightmare scenario: Civil war happens in Syria where minorities are killed, a large exodus from Syria to Lebanon takes place and a huge refugee crisis is created. A big blow to the Lebanese economy ensues as our exposure to the Syrian economy becomes clearer. In this scenario, all options are open and it is pointless to make any predictions.

2- More likely, Syria will go through an Iraqi Scenario: Assad will get replaced by a Sunni-dominated government, which with strong support from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the GCC, will make a strategic shift to join the “moderate” Arab countries. The effect on Lebanon will be the strengthening of the Saudi and West-friendly Future Movement and its allies, in addition to a probable defection of Mr. Berri’s Amal movement. Hezbollah and the FPM won’t go away, but they will be weakened.

I don’t want to be a kill-joy and I certainly don’t relish writing about boring realistic scenarios, but it is time to let go of the notion that the “Young and dynamic” Facebook and Twitter generation will take over running an Arab country as soon as a revolution succeeds.