❊ Why Would A Civil War In Syria Be Fought In Lebanon Too?

Many analysts are predicting that if a civil war was to take place in Syria (A big if, considering the fact that this is quite a convenient bugbear that the Assad regime keeps waving to maintain its grip on power), that somehow this will naturally transfer to Lebanon.

Here’s one analyst who for some reason chose to be anonymous:

If there is sectarian tension between Alawites and Sunnis in Syria this will definitely spill over to Lebanon. We have growing numbers of Sunni hardliners, this is clear, and it is all over the Middle East, and from the other side we have the Shi’ites getting more hardline — because of the conflict between Iran and the Gulf states. All of this is growing, so we should be scared. We are not immune

Many observers from both sides of the Lebanese political divide seem to take this logic for granted. But honestly, I just don’t see the concrete, irrefutable connection.

For starters, why doesn’t it work the other way around ? Lebanon’s civil war didn’t beget one in Syria. Moreover, Sunnis and Shiaas have been killing each other in Iraq, Iran and Pakistan for ages. Why didn’t this result in Lebanese Sunnis and Shiaas getting at each other’s throats?

We forget that Lebanon just recently had a very major Sunni/Shiaa stress test. Many Lebanese Sunnis believed that the Shiaas killed Rafic Hariri, and many Lebanese Shiaas believed that the Sunnis facilitated the Israeli bombardment of their areas in 2006. In other words, we already had our peak in mutual distrust and hatred. If anything things are cooling down, partly because of our free media which allows for emotional discharge and partly because of sheer fatigue from hatred.

Am I saying Lebanon is immune? Of course not. We could see a resumption of violence in some volatile urban pockets of mixed faiths. Places where poor Sunnis and Shias (or Alawis) live side by side and share a joyless existence. But I just can’t imagine a resumption of the large scale civil war like the one we had before. The memory is just too fresh in our minds to fall for it again..

And then again maybe I’m wrong. Thoughts?