Beirut Spring

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Remember that politics move quickly, and people and their opinions evolve.

❊ Bahrain Now, GCC Later?

March 23, 2011 · Mustapha Hamoui

Bahrain is responding to Sayyed Nasrallah with actions:

Bahrain has suspended its flights to and from Lebanon a day after it warned its nationals not to travel there following declarations of support by Iranian-backed Shi’ite group Hezbollah for protests by Bahrain’s Shi’ite

Manama could have reserved its sternness to “outlaw groups” in Lebanon, but it has instead turned this into an official diplomatic crisis between two countries. Caretaker PM Hariri called the Bahraini king in a futile attempt to contain the crisis, but the Bahrainis are well aware that it is Hezbollah that is forming the next government, not Mr. Hariri.

Could this crisis grow? From all indications, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are standing firmly behind the Bahraini royal family. As an example of that solidarity, the UAE has withdrawn its fighter jets from the Libya operations in protest against European “interference” with Bahrain.

If Hezbollah leads the new government and makes its Bahrain position the official position of the Lebanese government, it is not difficult to imagine a scenario where all the GCC countries would decide to punish the Lebanese government in the same way that Bahrain is doing today.

That would be an absolute disaster for Lebanon and for the hundreds of thousands of Lebanese who make their living in GCC countries. The thought of this alone should make PM designate Najib Mikati think a thousand times before forming his new one-sided government.