Syria Seeking To Benefit From Mubarak’s Replacement

Joshua Landis:

Syrian authorities are jubilant about Mubarak’s difficulties and the popular uprising in Egypt. It is common in opposition circles to suggest that Syrian authorities are panicked by the vision of popular revolt in Tunis and Egypt. I believe the opposite is true. Ever since Sadat made peace with Israel at Syria’s expense, Syrian authorities have hoped for regime change in Cairo. It has finally come.

I think many are overestimating the extent to which a strategic shift will take place in Egypt. Yes the new government will be less friendly to Israel and America. Yes it will be slightly more Islamist. But that doesn’t mean that Egypt will join the “axis of resistance.”

If anything, Egypt will resemble the present Turkey ruled by AK; a country that is Democratic, assertive and Islamic, but whose army and elite have made a pragmatic decision to keep a good relation with the west and a grudging relationship with Israel because of the high stakes (military and economic) involved.