Shifting Geopolitical Relationships In The Middle East

Anthony Shadid on the receding of the influence of traditional players and the rise of Turkey, Iran and Qatar:

The confrontation [in Lebanon] is the latest sign of a shifting map of the Middle East, where longtime stalwarts like Saudi Arabia and Egypt have further receded in influence, and emerging powers like Turkey, Iran and even the tiny Persian Gulf state of Qatar have decisively emerged in just a matter of a few years. It is yet another episode in which the United States has watched — seemingly helplessly — as events in places like Tunisia, Lebanon and even Iraq unfold unexpectedly and beyond its ability to control.

While I agree that this is a trend, I think it is easy to over-estimate the influence of the new players and under-estimate that of the traditional ones like the US and Saudi Arabia.

It’s also important to note that the shift above does not necessarily mean the triumph of one axis over another. Turkey and Iran are strategic adversaries and they’ll be pulling in different directions.