Berlin Wall? More Like The Cuban Missile Crisis, Writes One Reader

Reposted below is an email I received from reader Elie N. Jabbour on the previous “berlin wall” post :

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I had been thinking about Lebanon and the cold war over the past few days, so it was funny when I saw Richard Spencer compare Lebanon to the Berlin Wall. If Lebanon is the Berlin Wall, I think the STL could be President Obama’s Cuban Missile Crisis. While it does not pose the dire threat the U.S. homeland as ballistic missiles in Cuba did, I think the ramifications of a showdown in Lebanon are crucial to U.S. interests.

The resignation of March 8 ministers from the unity government during PM Hariri’s meeting with President Obama set leaders in Iran and Syria in a clear direction for confrontation with the West, particularly the U.S. and France. Obama’s decision to bolster the Sixth Naval Fleet off the coast of Lebanon sends a strong but indirect message that we are here and we are concerned. It is similar to Kennedy’s decision to have a “selective” quarantine of Cuba rather than a full naval blockade.

If Obama continues in his game of chicken with Tehran and Damascus, he could follow in Kennedy’s path and call high level meetings with his National Security Team and raise the alert level of certain elements in the U.S. military. In my opinion, this option would be counterproductive because it would raise the stakes while signaling an empty threat because the U.S. is likely to engage in military conflict with Iran and Syria over the STL and in protection of the Hariri government.

A better approach would be to do what Kennedy did and engage in high level secret contacts with his adversaries. Now is the time for the Obama administration to reach out to Tehran and Damascus directly, not through Riyadh or Ankara. While the Cuban missile crisis almost brought the world to the brink of war, Kennedy and Khrushchev realized that it would be devastating to both their countries. All parties are aware that open conflict in Lebanon will likely draw in U.S. allies, particularly Israel and would also likely spread to Syria and Iran.

Now is the time for leaders on both sides to realize that the only way for both parties to win is to strike a deal. A deal could look something like this: The STL is allowed to continue its work (which it will regardless of what happens in Lebanon). The Hariri government will stop Lebanon’s portion of the funding for the STL, rather than totally disavow it. Once the indictments are issued, Hezbollah will received guarantees that any of its members won’t be pursued for arrest and will be tried quietly in absentia. In return, a more technocratic government lead by Hariri will be allowed to govern the country with security guarantees. The U.S. will have to be more lenient on Iran’s nuclear program and provide guarantees that Israel will not strike if IAEA inspectors are allowed in. Easing of some sanctions on Syria would probably be necessary as well.

While none of this is likely to occur, I couldn’t help but draw parallels between the current situation and the Cuban Missile Crisis. I just hope, since I’m going to Beirut in 2 weeks, that things stay relatively calm until then.