❊ Can The Syrian President Pull Off Such an Impressive Visit?

The Syrian president may not be able to gather Ahmadinejad-level crowds in Lebanon, but it’s too early to count him out.

As I was watching all these people greeting the Iranian president in staggering numbers, I was wondering: Can the Syrian president pull off a similarly rapturous reception if he visits Lebanon?

To judge only by the optics, the theory that Iran and Syria are battling for influence in Lebanon is starting to sound quaint: Iran is playing in a completely different ballgame than Syria. Iran has the adoring crowds, the street names and the powerful Hezbollah army. All that Syria is left with are Wi2am wahhab, Jamil El Sayyed, Sleiman Franjieh and puny Sunni militias like the A7bash.

Has Syria lost Lebanon? It is tempting to think so. But optics are not all that matter and it’s too early to discount Damascus. One would do well to remember that without the Syrian conduit, Hezbollah would not have received the Iranian weapons. Without the Iranian weapons, Hezbollah could not have grown so much in influence and power, and without that influence and power, it would not have been able to whip out all those crowds for Mr. Ahmadinejad.

Iran also has many problems. It has its own political issues at home. It is increasingly isolated as international sanctions are starting to bite , there is a covert western operation against its nuclear and security infrastructure and many Iranians are unhappy that their taxes are going to Lebanon. In other words, Iranian largess to Hezbollah does not appear to be sustainable in the long run.

Then there’s that old Lebanese habit of calling in Syria whenever one Lebanese party becomes too powerful.

Mr. Ahmadinejad and the crowds are all smiles today, but the Syrians could very well end up with the last laugh.

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Note: Posts with titles starting with an ❊ (asterisk) are my article posts. I used this system to separate long posts from quick links and comments.