Why Hezbollah Won’t Be Having a “Coup”

Michael Young dismisses the scare stories of a Hezbollah military takeover of Lebanon:

any military move by Hezbollah is almost certain to lead to a Sunni-Shia civil war […] Hezbollah knows that that any sectarian conflict it precipitates would only hasten a Syrian military comeback and rally the party’s domestic foes to Syria’s side. Which makes one wonder whether Jumblatt, in welcoming a new Syrian deployment in Lebanon, was not implicitly warning Hezbollah against engaging in reckless action.

This is why, in my opinion, Hezbollah leaders are being noticeably strong on rhetoric these days. It’s because they know that they can’t accomplish their goals by action, and are hoping to scare away the faint of heart from supporting the tribunal.

Perhaps that’s the secret of Mr. Hariri’s calm?