Michael Young On The Game Theory Between Hariri, Hezbollah and Syria

He thinks that Hariri’s strongest card is declaring confidence in the STL then resigning.

Young argues that Hezbollah wouldn’t in that case be able to find a credible Sunni replacement to work against the international tribunal, since the Sunni public opinion would be strongly behind it.

Fair enough. But Hariri doesn’t seem to be in the mood of playing brinkmanship, as he keeps repeating the mantras of reconciliation and calm.