Who Is Targeting The Lebanese Army?

As yet another tragic attack takes place against Lebanese men in uniform, let’s review who the culprits behind this attack might be:

In no particular order, here are the 4 most plausible theories making the rounds in Lebanon.

Theory #1:

The Culprits: Sunni Salafist terrorists
Why it could be true: Alquaeda-linked jihadists were recently defeated and humiliated by the Lebanese Army in Naher el Bared. The idea is that the remnants of those jihadis have been on a quest for revenge ever since.
Who supports this theory: Aounists and Hezbollah supporters. The theory is convenient to them because it puts heat on their common arch-enemy: The Future Movement headed by Saad Hariri whom they accuse of funding salafist Jihadists.
Why this theory is not perfect: The Salafists have no significant presence in the south and have no sophisticated ability to trespass Hezbollah-controlled areas

Theory#2:

The Culprit: Hezbollah/Iran
Why it could be true: The attack on the Lebanese Army helicopter took place in an area controlled by Hezbollah. According to an Annahar article featured by the Lebanese Forces website, the area is a Hezbollah military zone.
Who supports this theory: Anti-Hezbollah Lebanese like March-14 hawks and a large section of the Sunni community.
Why this theory is not perfect: If the theory is true, Hezbollah will have to accept one of two things: 1- It doesn’t have proper control over its military areas, or 2- It is killing Lebanese soldiers. Both would be a huge hit to Hezbollah’s internal reputation and prestige.

Theory#3:

The Culprit: Syria
Why it could be true: Syria could be trying to undermine the army for its newly found neutrality. Cynics say that the army is the only institution left that can effectively counter the Lebanese state’s disintegration, an outcome that would allow Syria to come back to “restore peace”
Who supports this theory: Anti-Syrians who are having none of the talk about Franco-Syrian rapprochement.
Why this theory is not perfect: Syria is looking forward to its “diplomatic coup” of hosting President Sarkozy of France. Its would have postponed this operation till after his visit.

Theory#4:

The Culprit: Israel
Why it could be true: Israel had recently threatened the Lebanese state that it would target all of Lebanon if Hezbollah attacks. Attacking Lebanese soldiers flying 20kms north of its border could be a way for Israel to back up its words with action.
Who supports this theory: Hezbollah, some independent Lebanese and various leftists and Arabists.
Why this theory is not perfect: Unlike other operations attributed to Israel (The killing of Mohammad Suleiman and the bombing of the Nuclear facility in Syria), there is no strategic objective attained by this relatively minor operation. It’s hard to imagine Israel risking a war with Hezbollah for such small fry.

Do you have other theories on who might have been behind this? If you do please share with us in the comments section.