Organized Terror Will Always Trump Armed Mobs

The latest Tripoli explosion is a sign that the pro-Syrian Alawites are shifting their tactics. To survive, the supporters of the Future Movement will have to adapt.

The Tripoli front.

The pro-Syrian Alawites have always been a minority in Tripoli, but two things have given them advantage in the past: A strategic geographical isolation with access control, and the backing of sinister strategists who meticulously plan and carefully execute terror campaigns. The latest explosion in Bab el Tebbane in Tripoli which left one dead and dozens wounded is a sign that the said strategists have begun executing their plans.

The pro-Almustaqbal Sunni factions in Tripoli are well armed. Denying that fact would be futile. But arms -no matter how big and fancy- are no match for carefully planned ad-hoc explosions that can strike fear at the hearts of people, who will slowly be demoralized, and perhaps eventually give in to Syrian dominance by seeking their protection.

Almustaqbal will have to make a difficult choice to prevail in this war. The two-fold strategy of publicly supporting the Lebanese army on one hand, while secretly arming their insecure base on the other will have to give in to a more thorough assessment of the current battle that would ultimately result in a more effective security strategy.

Guns without plans are useless. But plans require more involvement from the higher-ups who are more comfortable around offices than around war zones. Therein lies the predicament of the Future Movement.