Reading Into The Situation

Did Hezbollah make a big mistake? Is it Bush’s fault? What will Israel do now?

(photo credit: AFP)

The Daily KOS (American activist Left blog, leans towards Obama), makes the argument that Lebanon is already messed up and that someone as incompetent as Bush shouldn’t have made it worse by meddling with it:

Given Lebanon’s vexed history since the 1940’s, one can’t honestly say that even if the US had handled the Lebanese situation more adroitly — by taking a smaller, quieter role instead of using internal Lebanese developments as evidence of the salubrious effects on Arab democracy supposedly brought about by our invasion of Iraq — that Lebanon would have avoided a power struggle between Hezbollah and the Sunni-Druze led government. 

But yet again, the Bush administration bumbled in to a complex situation in the Middle East, and made pronouncements that demonstrated its ignorance and dangerous naivety. And once again, a situation arises where, because of our invasion and occupation of Iraq, we have no credibility to intervene diplomatically or help bring about a situation that would be both better for the local population and most likely less likely to empower declared adversaries of the United States.

Rex Brynen, of McGill University argues that Hezbollah has made a big mistake , something which it lately seems to be making a habit of:

First, there was the 2006 war, which Hizbullah clearly did not foresee (although it was quite foreseeable). As it turns out they secured their “divine victory” because the Israelis made even more serious mistakes, but it certainly wasn’t a triumph of strategic master thought.

Then there was the withdrawal from cabinet, and the “tent camp” siege of the government–which turned out to NOT to have the rapid and decisive effect that Hizbullah intended. Nasrallah seems to have never anticipated that he would simply be ignored, and that it would be business as usual in the Grand Serail.

Finally, there is the take-over of West Beirut. While the rather foolish and incautious cabinet decisions were the cause of this, I think it was also driven by Hizbullah’s continuing inability to leverage M14 as much as they wanted to. The withdrawal of fighters from the street (albeit, after some very thuggish behaviour by their Amal and SSNP proxies) was clearly intended to spin this all as a reluctant Hizbullah with a national agenda (rather than a sectarian move), they’ve clearly underestimated the effect in the Christian community where it has all done substantial damage to Aoun (a fact that even his most loyal deputies are privately admitting). Given that the Christian community is the only one in play–the Shiite, Sunni, and Druze communities are all pretty much solidly behind the Hizbullah/Amal, Mustaqbal, and the PSP respectively, and now even more so–the long term result could be a politically weakened M8. Ironically, this comes at a time when M14’s weak government performance were causing it some real problems with its constituents–however, events in Beirut will now counter that with a “rally around the (sectarian) flag” effect.

It is also possible that the M14 groups will now do some serious arming and training (despite all the accusations, their past efforts have been VERY limited and haphazard), probably with Saudi/Jordanian/Egyptian support–not really in Hizbullah’s long-term advantage.

Finally, what does Hizbullah do if M14 just ignores Hizbullah’s obvious preeminent military power? I suspect they’ll do exactly that: not soften on the “presidential package” (next cabinet/PM, new electoral law), leaving Hizbullah no better off than before. Indeed, given the damage M8 has taken in non-Shiite communities, in a few months it could even be in a somewhat worse position.

In short, I think this is far from being an unalloyed masterstroke of strategic brilliance.

Over at Israel, they are not happy at the Lebanese army’s perceived compliance with Hezbollah. Yoav Stgern writes in Haaretz:

The close ties between the army and Hezbollah go beyond the recent battles. They also extend to south Lebanon. Under UN resolution 1701, the Lebanon Army was to deploy in the south and thus take up places occupied by Hezbollah, something that had raised hopes in Israel. Today, UNIFIL and the Lebanon Army respond to every incident in south Lebanon, but the presence of the army has no real significance there. At the moment of truth, the army will follow Hezbollah’s orders, diplomatic sources believe.

But the Israelis are spotting an opportunity: (In a nutshell, “Phew, now that Hezbollah are the rulers, we can bomb the Entire friggin’ country to pieces…”)

Former IDF chief of staff Amnon Lipkin-Shahak said Sunday Hezbollah’s persistent attempts to take over Lebanon could eventually benefit Israel in its struggle against the militant group.

 “If an armed conflict erupts it will be simpler to strike Lebanon when Hezbollah is the legitimate ruler,” Shahak told the Army Radio.

 Earlier on Sunday, Israel’s Vice Premier Haim Ramon told cabinet members that Lebanon must be viewed as a “Hezbollah state,” after the Shiite guerilla group seized control over the western part of the Lebanese capital over the weekend.

 “Lebanon has no government. It is a fiction, there is only Hezbollah,” Ramon said during the weekly cabinet meeting. “Hezbollah is directly responsible for everything that happens [in Lebanon], and the organization completely controls the state.”

I’d like to hear your thoughts and reactions..