The Opposition’s Street Primaries

The opposition is betting that mini-demonstrations in their neighborhoods will snowball into a movement that can cripple the government. Will they succeed?

Soldiers reopening roads closed by Hezbollah demonstrators (AFP)

Everyone in Lebanon is waiting for super duper Tuesday. No, I’m not talking about February 5 when most American primaries take place. I’m talking about today, where pundits and analysts are turning their eyes to Batroon in North Lebanon.

Batroon matters because it will be Aoun’s biggest test: Can the general, like his allies Hezbollah and Amal before him, summon large amounts of angry Christian demonstrators that are willing to burn tires and halt a city into a stand still?

The General is chosing Batroon because of its proximity to Zgharta and Koura, where his ally, Patriarch-insulting Sleimen Frangieh has many followers supporters. But that doesn’t make it a risk-free venture. In fact, Mr. Aoun has opted for a surprise tactic and has hedged with denial in likely case that the event fizzles.

If –a big if- Mr. Aoun can summon enough angry Christians, March 14 Christians shoud be worried (after all, they have been arguing since the Metn elections that Mr. Aoun has lost his Christian base). This is why everyone is keeping his eyes on Batroon.