Where Are We Going?

Reader Lebanese Patriot is trying to understand the situation in Lebanon and is asking: “What next?”. Your reactions would be more than appreciated.

Can the divide be bridged?

I am a strong supporter to March 14. I support them because of the following:

• I believe in the Cedar revolution.
• Every single move that they did is constitutional
• Syria has to be out for good.
• They have so far been peaceful

I do not support March 8 because of the following:

• I am against Syria
• I cannot support the Hezbollah entity in Lebanon. NO free country will allow that to happen.
• March 8 leaders are tools for Syria and Iran
• Most (if not ALL) of the moves/demands of March 8 are unconstitutional.

What next?

Three possible scenarios might emerge:

• Status Quo
• Civil war
• Regional war

Status Quo

That is the favorite option for Syria and Iran. Status Quo means no government (period). They want that so none of the United Nations agreements (1701, 1559) will be applied in Lebanon. Nevertheless, they want to make sure that the International Tribunal will face every single possible obstacle that their imagination can get.

One major consequence of that will be the rift between Lebanese people will be bigger.

Civil War

This will be Syria’s option if the International Tribunal started to work after all their obstacles fail. Chaos will be a good way to make sure that some of the suspects will be unreachable in Lebanon. But, I wonder what they will do about Syrian suspects? Will they be moving them to the Syrian parts of Lebanon?

Consequences:

• War will be very chaotic. No known zones are available yet between different rivals. It might take a year or more to establish new stable war zones.
• Massacres will be everywhere especially between Sunnis and Shias.
• There is a big possibility that the regional forces will not allow a party to win.
• Possibility for the war to last 3o years or more.
• Rift between the Lebanese will be bigger than ever.

Regional war

Iran, Syria, Hezbollah Israel and the US will engage in a very messy war. The question will be: who will be starting that war? And, how it will end? How much damage we will be facing in the region?


Why I am writing this?

I am writing this to you is not because of my analysis of the situation. It is because of the rift between the Lebanese people. I hate March 8 leaders. But I should not say that about their followers.

The concept of the soccer team is how we are affiliated with our leaders. Most followers of Aoun will be following him regardless of where he will be taking them just because they hate Geagea. Most of Sunnis, if not all, are supporters of Hariri regardless. Most of Shias are followers to Nasrallah regardless, and so on….

Where are we going as Lebanese people? Do you know that people are avoiding each other’s because of that? Do you know that, in a Union representatives election for the taxi in one major Canadian city where 95% of the driver are Lebanese, the drivers approximately killed each other’s to avoid having a Aoun supporter representing LFers. And vice versa.

Is this the end of the Lebanese people? Before, I used to be asked about being Muslim or Christian. Now I am being asked clearly if I am a March 8 or a March 14 supporter? Do you know that people are not doing business any more with each other’s because of that?