Amir Taheri: Ahmadinejad Is Forcing Aoun On Syria

To Amir Taheri, a famous commentator with an Iranian background, there is no doubt who Ahmadinejad’s choice for the Lebanese Presidency is.

The one with the bigger smile gets to chose the president.

Writing in the English website of Alsharq Al Awsat, a Saudi newspaper, Mr. Taheri chose to ignore Lebanon’s big story -the “summit” meetings between Hariri and Aoun in Paris- and is presenting Mr. Aoun as the Iranian’s president’s only choice:

Earlier this week, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dispatched his Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki to Damascus with a single message: Tehran wants Aoun and no one else as the next President of Lebanon. Believing that he is pushing the US into retreat across the chessboard, from Afghanistan to Iraq and passing by the Caspian Basin and e Levant, Ahmadinejad hopes that a spectacular success in Lebanon would enhance his own prospects for winning a majority in the Iranian general election next spring.

According to Mr. Taheri, even Syria will be strong-armed by Iran to Accept Aoun:

In Ahmadinejad’s analysis, Syria, now a virtual client state of the Islamic Republic, is trying to keep the option of switching sides open. One way to block that option is to commit Syria to a direct and clear confrontation with the United States and its Arab allies over who should be Lebanon’s next president. The man most likely to provoke such confrontation is Aoun whose election would amount to a clear defeat with the current Lebanese majority

How credible is Mr. Taheri’s article?

I personally find it hard to believe that Mr. Ahmadinejad would vouch so aggressively for someone who might eventually turn against him, as Mr. Taheri himself concedes. The objective of a symbolic victory over the US could well be on Mr. Ahmedinejad’s to-do list, but I doubt that Aoun is the best vehicle for implementing it.