Does The Opposition Still Have Traction?

The opposition has the will, but does it have the power to repeal a would-be 50+1 Presidential vote?

Security was tight in the first voting session..

The MPs have gathered today in parliament to elect a President, but they failed to reach a two-third quorum. What happens after that will largely depend on the on-going negotiations between the “moderates” of both sides, Mr. Berri and Mr. Hariri. But meanwhile, the “hawks” have been establishing their leverages. 

The “hardliners” of March 14 have laid down their terms in the form of simultaneous press conferences by Mr. Geagea and Mr. Jumblat. Both leaders effectively demanded a President who is acceptable to March 14. As Mr Geagea neatly puts it: “We want a President whose relationship with March 14 is similar to that between Mr. Berri and March 8, or we’ll have to chose a different speaker of Parliament”. 

Both Mr. Geagea and Mr. Jumblat made it well known that in case no agreement was reached, March 14 will have to resort to its nuclear option: A 50%+1 voting session that will result in a March 14 President. 

Meanwhile, the opposition’s “hardliners” have also been threatening a nuclear option of their own in case March 14 does go ahead and “unilaterally” picks a President. So far though, they are yet to spell out what they will do. Most of March 8’s threats sound scary, but warnings of “ultimate evil” and “coups” aside, one cannot see precisely what they are up to, and more importantly, whether or not they can muster anything more powerful than what they tried last year (and the Seniora Government withstood).

The people of March 8, like those of March 14, just want to live a normal life in a normal country. It can be argued that the only reason they took part in last year’s large-scale demos is that they were promised “swift results” and that they were told that nothing serious will happen to Lebanese unity and stability as a result. Moreover, large numbers of last year’s protesters were fresh out of the July war and needed a channel to release their frustration and anger, whereas this year they are tired from politics and just want to go home. 

In other words, unless Hezbollah is planning to use its weapons internally (a threat their ally Michel Aoun has already made), there is nothing to prove that the opposition’s warnings are anything more than bluffs.

All the same, this blog wishes for the negotiations to succeed.