Hariri’s Silence: Deafening Or Golden?

Speculations abound on whether Saad Hariri’s silence is an indication of hesitation and incompetence, or a planned withdrawal to clear the air for compromise.

Peeking in?

Nothing symbolizes the Future Movement’s state of soul-searching more than the performance of Johnny Abdo on Future TV yesterday: Just a few minutes after praising Walid Jumblat for his “Moral Clarity” and supporting his stances on conducting a half+1 quorum for electing the next President, the ex Intelligence chief and Hariri loyalist went back and said that the best realistic outcome would be a “crisis management” President. In other words, a compromise President.

The more March 14 presidential candidates announce their programs and appease Hezbollah (Boutros Harb’s announcement today mentioned “protecting the resistance” and “the crucial Two-Thirds Quorum”), The more Walid Jumblat’s threats of convening a half+1 quorum ring hollow, regardless of the fact that the letter of the constitution allows for such a scenario.

So where does Saad Hariri, leader of the Future movement stand?

By keeping his silence (although he’s not distancing himself too much as his media still showcases Jumblat’s and Geagea’s statements), Hariri might be trying to prepare the grounds for a Saudi-Style compromise (which proved disastrous in the case of Palestine). Seniora’s statements in defense of Hezbollah against the Human Rights Watch yesterday point in that direction, and even the French now seem to prefer compromise.
 
March 8 members are sensing an opportunity. Hezbollah’s Mohammed Raad announced a few days ago that they are waiting for the position of a “certain source”, referring to Hariri, to see where the country is heading. Michel El Murr called Hariri’s silence “a great national stance”, not to mention Nabih Berri’s constant optimistic rhetoric.

The “American Wing” of March 14 is furious. Amine Jemayyel told Assafir that Lebanon has become a loony bin. Walid Jumblat warned that you can’t compromise with those who don’t accept the notion of Lebanon and Micheal Young is already criticizing Hariri. 

The Americans also appear to be feeling the heat. Their Humvee donations to the Army can be seen as a bribe and Mr. Feltman’s declaration that Lebanon is a “strategic partner” looks more like sizzle than like beef.

Nobody really knows which of Johnny Abdo’s two instincts is correct. But no matter what choice Hariri will eventually make, only history will be able to tell if compromise or confrontation was the right way to go.