The Problem With Big Carrots

Will France’s promise of a “Spectacular Opening Gesture” convince Syria of leaving Lebanon alone?

Diplomats rarely use the word spectaculaire, but this is precisely the word chosen by France’s top diplomat to discribe to Le Parisien how his country would treat Assad’s regime if only it would let Lebanon peacefully elect a President and remove the last significant position the Syrians still control. 

Will Bashar be tempted?

This being Sarkozy’s France, one can imagine a scenario where France discretely promises Syria a huge weapons contract and an ego-boosting visit by Sarkozy himself. Two weeks later, Cecillia Sarkozy would fly to Damascus and whisk out a pro-western Lebanese President back to safety in Beirut…

Alas, wrong country. Too many people have tried to pull a Lybian on Syria, but many are failing to see the fundamental difference in Logic between the two regimes. 

The regime in Damascus has a particular logic that goes something like this: France moved from “opening” to “spectacular opening”. Good news. Now I wonder what damage I can cause to make that an “Extra spectacular opening”. 

In other words, if the Syrian regime ran Lybia, it would have by now started rounding up every European nurse in the country and throwing them in jails under various crimes. Just imagine all the “Spectacular openings” it could get after that.