How Orange Are The Metnis?

Was the Metn election really a political loss for Michel Aoun?

Spin To Win

The Lebanese “Sunni newspapers” (and no, I don’t mean Annahar) had no doubts about the outcome of the Metn election: “Political Unanimity In Asserting The Christian Conversion To March 14” headlined Almustaqbal. “The Kataeb Are Back”, echoed Alliwaa. But was it really such a victory for March 14’s Christian camp?

Many in the blogosphere see it as such. But before any more ink is spent on writing political obituaries for Michel Aoun, objective observers would do well to water down the significance of the results. Also, March 14 Christians should act with less triumphalism.

Michel Aoun, after all, is just one Maronite leader battling the combined forces of all other Maronites. He fought the campaign with an unheard-of candidate against an ex President. Name recognition alone is worth a few percentage points. 

Not to mention the emotional voting against the killers of Pierre. This deserves a pause for thought: If I were a Aouni who voted for gemayyel because I feel his pain, and then I wake up the next morning finding him exploiting my compassion for political ends, wouldn’t I feel betrayed?

This doesn’t mean that losing the 20,000 votes edge is not a political defeat for the FPM’s leader. It simply means that March 14 would be wise not to harp on and on in the media about beating Aoun. They can be risking a real orange backlash in the future.