Paper VS Paper

On the day of national “consultations”, two important reports add to the arsenals of the two main parties.

The first report is a poll done by the Beirut Center for Research and Information, a respected polling institution that newspapers like Annahar regularly commission for research.

The report concludes that after the Israel summer war, the Lebanese public opinion shifted away from the March 14 independence alliance towards the “opposition parties”, i.e. the Hezbollah-Amal-Aoun axis.

The pollsters asked a sample of 5000 voters “with the intention of voting” across Lebanon. Their samples are scattered along sectarian lines. The poll hypothesizes an election held under the Fouad Boutros election law which advocates a combination of Kazas and proportional representation.

Here’s a sample table from the conclusions:

The results can partly be attributed to the large exodus of wealthy Lebanese (who traditionaly support the March 14 alliance) after the war. Still, this report will likely be used by Aoun and Hezbollah as a leverage in their talks with the rest of the Lebanese this week. (The findings also explain why Nassrallah is threatening early elections)

The second report , by Transparency international, calls Lebanon a country with a “significant improvement in perceived levels of corruption”. Lebanon moved from 83rd place in 2005 to 63rd in 2006 in their international corruption index.

The report will likely be used as a weapon against Aoun’s electoral platform of “fighting corruption” by the March 14 alliance.