The Joker

Rabieh is making reconciliatory noises. Is anyone listening?

One of the greatest outcomes of American diplomacy in the last few days is the opening up of the FPM. It doesn’t really matter if Ambassador Feltman actually threatened Michel Aoun like Assafir wrote yesterday, or didn’t, as the Ambassador himself asserts (here’s a question for you: who do you believe more, Assafir or Feltman?)

What really matters is that all this talk about Hezbollah being on America’s terrorist list, (so any logistical cooperation between the FPM and Hezbollah would be tantamount to “assisting terror”), plus the leaks regarding a possible American future support for an orange presidency, plus the top-level American anger at “Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and their Lebanese supporters”, have together helped soften Aoun’s rhetoric. After all, the last thing any FPM Lebanese American wants is the CIA scrutinizing their bank accounts.

It seems that the Americans, having understood the stakes, are trying to drive a wedge between Aoun and Hezbollah (and another one between Berri and Hezbollah but that is another story). How is Aoun responding?

Various indications are promising. Aoun’s assertion of independence, underplaying his contribution to street protest as only “last resort”, visit to the Patriarch and expected future visit to Saudi Arabia are all positive signs. Aoun is also proposing a “proportional representation” in the government, where the cabinet expands to 30 seats; the majority would get 17 seats and the opposition 13. In those 13, 5 will go to Aoun and 8 to Hezbollah and Amal.

Such a composition would give Aoun enormous bargaining power. Without him, Hezbollah and Amal will not have the veto-wielding third of the cabinet. In other words, Aoun has the final say in what to veto, but more importantly, what not to veto.

This understandably makes Hariri and Jumblat nervous, but with the right American guarantees (like maintaining sensitive ministries and perhaps the removal of Lahhoud with Aoun’s approval), they could grudgingly be shoved into this wagon.