Futile Actions…

Israel just doesn’t get it…

Michael Young hits the nail on the head with this Op-ed in the New York Times. He explains why all of Israel’s current actions in Lebanon are sterile:

Israel can brutalize Lebanon all it wants, but unless something is done to stop Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, from exporting instability to buttress his despotic regime, little will change.

Once the Israelis end their offensive, Hezbollah will regroup and continue to hold Lebanon hostage through its militia, arguably the most effective force in the country. Hamas leaders in Damascus will continue derailing any negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. And Syria will continue to eat away at Lebanese independence, reversing the gains of last year when hundreds of thousands of Lebanese marched against Syrian hegemony.

Many Lebanese are very surprised why Israel is leaving Syria alone. In fact, one of the most commonly held conspiracy theories in Lebanon is this one: Israel and Syria had this worked out together in a perverse deal to hurt Lebanon.
Nobody knows why, but unless Israel goes to the source, more people will believe in this particular conspiracy.

Michael Young also offers a solution that should make all sides happy:

It would be far smarter for Israel, and America, to profit from Hezbollah’s having perhaps overplayed its hand. The popular mood here is one of extreme anger that the group has provoked a conflict Lebanon cannot win. The summer tourism season, a rare source of revenue for a country on the financial ropes, has been ruined. Even Hezbollah’s core supporters, the Shiite Muslims in the south, cannot be happy at seeing their towns and villages turned again into a killing field.

The five permanent Security Council members, perhaps at this weekend’s Group of 8 meeting, should consider a larger initiative based on the resolution that would include: a proposal for the gradual collection of Hezbollah’s weapons; written guarantees by Israel that it will respect Lebanese sovereignty and pull its forces out of the contested Lebanese land in the Shebaa Farms; and the release of prisoners on both sides. Such a deal could find support among Lebanon’s anti-Syrian politicians, would substantially narrow Hezbollah’s ability to justify retaining its arms, and also send a signal to Syria and particularly Iran that the region is not theirs for the taking.

Regardless of what some wackos believe, I think the plan is brilliant. But if we listen to the Lebanese who believe in the conspiracy: The Israelis and the Syrians don’t want that to happen.