The Bridge Vs. The Populist

A glimpse at the battle taking shape to secure the Lebanese Presidency

It seems president Lahhoud will stay around until his term expires after all. But that doesn’t mean that he’s not a lame duck. In fact, the two people who have the strongest chance of replacing him are already strategizing their way up to the top.
M.P. General Michel Aoun and Veteran M.P. Butros Harb are both ambitious Maronite Christian heavyweights, who are gearing up to snatch the seat that will be available in 2007.

For all of you Nassib Lahhoud fans (myself included), I’m sorry to announce that after losing an election, his chances of becoming the president are close to nil, at least for the short term. As for you Hariri Die-hards, forget it, Ghattas Khoury WILL NEVER BE president. Pierre Jmayyel is too young, Samir Franjieh is new into official Lebanese politics, Neila Mou3awwad will not be Lebanon’s first female president and Samir Geagea is not going to be the next Mandella.

So, Back to Aoun and Harb: how are they positioning themselves as prospective presidents? A close look at Aoun’s statements yesterday and another at Harb’s T.V. Appearance (LBC) today offer us a lot of clues.

Butros Harb has always marketed himself as a strong Christian leader, but one who can work with the other Lebanese parties as well. He is convinced that the Lebanese president needs to be a unifying figure. He never loses his temper and he has shown remarkable composure in the face of magnificent adversity. Even when the Syrians were here, his criticism of them was marked by a graceful combination of firmness and willingness to negotiate.
But Butros Harb also understands that being a president in a post-Syrian era means that he has to be a “real” Christian; in other words, not one that succumbs to the whims of the Moslem partners, whom the Christian base perceives as monopolizing the post-Taef decision-making process. This is why Mr. Harb always takes care of showcasing his Christianity by visiting the Patriarch and announcing “Christian” positions (like asking for an election law based on smaller districts and demanding that the army be positioned in the south)

If Butros Harb is catering to the center, then Michel Aoun is catering to both the far right and far left. His vow yesterday to take to the street in face of corruption is nothing but a consolidation of the image he has been building for the last 15 years: The zero-tolerance populist leader who understands the people’s suffering. This appeals to the Christian right who voted for him because he’s a “strong Christian leader who can stand up to the other Lebanese poles”. But it also appeals to the left in general, because he comes across as a man of the people, a man who understands the “regular guy like me”. He is also wooing the young lefties by stressing his secular credentials. This is why I expect to see him push for election rights for the over 18s.

Whose strategy will work better?

It all depends on the mood of the country two years from now. Michel Aoun seems to be closer to the Christian psyche today because of their perception that the Moslem leaders are consolidating their powers. “Look, they have even formed a government without him” they seem to be saying. Not that he minds; being in the opposition is the easiest way for Aoun’s popularity to soar.

But never underestimate Butros Harb, this man knows how to charm people and he seems to be made-to-be-president. He also has the backing of the major international players and that of Hariri. But only time can tell who will be our next Fakhamat Al Ra’ees.