Attacking a good idea for political expediency..
There’s a new talking point in Beirut: An electoral law based on proportional representation is evil because it reinstates Damascus’ influence by increasing the power of its allies in Lebanon.
I understand when people like MP Walid Jumblatt peddle such rubbish. After all, he stands to significantly lose influence if such a law was to be enacted. But MP Hariri’s reiteration of this argument yesterday is very worrying to me. Continue reading
I’ve been harsh on Mr. Saad Hariri before, but I think the man had a very good interview yesterday. This is not an analysis post, just a quick what-went-through-my-head-while-watching thingy.
I’m sure Mr. Hariri left a lot to be desired, but here are a few observations on why I think he did a good job:
I’m not saying Mr. Hariri is an angel. He’s a politician after all, and for all we know most of what he said was rehearsed and focus-group-tested by PR agencies. What I’m saying is that he’s starting to sound more like an effective politician: Calm and approachable yet strategic and quick on his feet. This can do wonders to the moral of his supporters and political allies, and this is why I’m calling yesterday’s interview a successful one.
Bonus: Half way through the show, I found out that PM Najib Mikati is also having a live TV interview at the same time as Mr. Hariri. Make no mistake about this, this is not a coincidence. I looked back with amusement at what I wrote three month ago: “PM Najib Mikati has a strange habit of raining on [Mr. Hariri's] parades”.
One of the aspects that grated me most about the story that Lebanese private banks payed for the STL is the fact that the government did not end up paying. It was Lebanese private businesses who footed the bill, and it is still not clear if their shareholders got anything in return, save for perhaps “protection” from extortion.
On a symbolic level, this is bad. Remember those pesky Aounists who claimed that Hariri should pay this from his own pocket because he’s rich? Remember how we always answered that this is not about Hariri or other individuals, that this is about a commitment made by the Lebanese government to the international community on an institutional level?
This has all gone up in the wind. This is now a crude case of the merchant being extorted by the gunman. Lebanese institutions are more of a joke today than they ever were.
Update: Apparently Mr. Hariri doesn’t mind..
The high-profile criticism of M.P. Ghenwa Jalloul by Mr. Jumblat could be the beginning of an electoral purge by the Future Movement.
Back in the days of Hariri the father, a young woman who taught Computer Sciences in the American University of Beirut asked for a meeting with “Sheikh Rafik”. They had never met her before, but he granted her the meeting.” Hi, my name is Ghenwa Jalloul”, the woman told him. “I just want to tell you that I’m a big admirer of yours, and this is my (impressive) CV. I would like to help”.
Impressed by her boldness, seeing in her an embodiment of his vision of Lebanon and eager to flex his political muscles, Mr. Hariri surprised everyone and put the unknown woman in his electoral list in Beirut. Mrs. Jalloul became an M.P. since then, but could this be about to change?
Years later, Hariri’s son Saad is facing a much trickier electoral landscape than his father’s. He must build his alliances wisely and chose his MPs very carefully. In today’s Lebanon, people like Ghenwa Jalloul who are loyal but lack independent support can prove to be liabilities. The days where his father could just plant anyone he likes seem so far away. Yet, unlike say Dr. Ghattas Koury, the popular lady M.P. could prove tricky to put aside.
Enter Mr. Jumblat, who out of the blue yesterday decided to deliver a stinging public criticism of Mrs. Jalloul, for simple electoral rhetoric that no one should take seriously. Significantly, the Future Movement did not rush to defend her, and Mrs. Jalloul herself remained mum.
The question is: Is Mr. Jumblat freelancing and aiming for her replacement seat? Or is he simply doing Mr. Hariri’s dirty work? Only time can tell, but it is safe to say that we can expect more acts of political “cannibalism” from now until the elections.
All sides should try their best not to portray this as a defeat for Lebanon’s Sunnis.
Humiliated on Hezbollah TV. (Photo Credit: Yahoo!)
As Hezbollah moved into (Sunni) west Beirut and took on the moderate Future Movement, many will be tempted to portray this as a defeat for Lebanon’s Sunnis. That would be bad ideas whose repercussions will affect all parties in the country.
Unleashing the sectarian monster can seem like a good idea to Islamists allied with the Future Movement and to the Saudis, but they had better think twice before letting that genie out of the bottle. All parties, including the Future movement should actively portray this as a security and political situation, not a sectarian one.
Because before we know it, extreme elements can manipulate the sense of victimhood some Sunnis would have and target Shiaa symbols with terrorist operations that would unleash the same god-forsaken death spiral that exists in Iraq.
We don’t have to go through all what Iraq has suffered to realize that Al-Quaeda is not really what the Sunnis want for their protection.
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