What Hezbollah and America Have in Common

A smart and interesting angle from Andrew Exum:

Hezbollah finds itself in much the same position as the United States as it watches the clouds of war gather between Israel and Iran. Like the United States, it has reason to hope conflict can be averted. But like the United States, it is realistic about the likelihood that it will be drawn into a conflict once the first shots are fired.

The important insight here is that both of them are so wary of a war that they’re almost willing to work together to prevent it from happening.. That would nicely explain the chumminess between the two sides lately.. (PS: Exum is one of the paint-balling 4)

Operation “The Light Side of Hezbollah”

A few days after “paint-balling with Hezbollah”, we get yet another exposé in an english language publication in which the themes of Hezbollah, entertainment and western journalists getting privileged access and bragging about it, are mixed together.

“Inside Hezbollah’s Terror Tech Museum”, published today in WIRE, (more colorfully republished in io9) is yet another piece in which the journalist (in this case Sharon Weinberger) tries to overcompensate for his access to Hezbollah by using the words “terror” and “terrorism” whenever he can. (Translation: Yes, I fraternized with Hezbollah but I still think they’re a bunch of baby killing monsters)

Everybody wins. Hezbollah plays the journalists, the journalists brag about their access and western readers get exotic photos and material to read.

Do I get anything out of the article? Yes: I find myself thinking that the amount of visitors to the Mleeta park is directly related to how popular Hezbollah is in the region. If only I could get statistics of visits, how they changed during key Hezbollah events, and how they are affected by the events in Syria.. (Thanks Azmi)

Update:

Patric Galey, a western journalist with an extensive Beirut experience (reporting for the Daily Star, a local newspaper with a Lebanese readership), explains western Journalists’ fascination with Hezbollah:

["paint-balling with Hezbollah"] is in keeping with a long narrative of western gawping at Hezbollah. We’ve all done it. When I first arrived in Beirut I wrote excitedly that six days into my stay I’d had tea with party officials. I thought that was cool and, in a way, I suppose it was for someone fresh off the plane. But reporters learn and evolve. When you’ve gathered party sources and interviewed enough officials, you realize that, largely, Hezbollah is just like most political parties here; they just happen to have more rockets

Maybe “fresh off the plane” should be the standard way of dismissing writers who come up with such pieces..

Hezbollah Fighters and American Journalists Shoot Each Other for Fun

Think of this scenario: 4 American Journalists, one of whom was publicly accused of killing P.M Rafik Hariri in a Beirut press conference last year, and another had greatly angered Hezbollah by publishing a supposed interview with one of their operatives accused of killing Hariri, have managed somehow to arrange a game of paintball with 4 Hezbollah fighters.

“It took nearly a full year to pull together this game”, wrote Mitchel Prothero, one of the 4, “and all along I’d been convinced that things would fall apart at the last minute. Fraternizing with Westerners is not the sort of thing Hezbollah top brass allows”.

Long story short, it happened, and Michel Prothero lived to tell the story. They played, they laughed, they joked, and Hezbollah apparently kept cheating and using real weapons. But this for a good cause, Prothero explains. In case you’re wondering why honest-to-god American journalists are playing with terrorists, rest assured that it’s for the greater good:

After more than five years in Beirut, I’d never once found a way to interact closely with Hezbollah fighters. So I wondered: What might I learn if I could get them out of their tightly disiplined environment, into a place where they might relax a little and trust me enough to reveal even a fleeting truth or insight?

This is an entertaining read, but something bothers me about it and I can’t put my finger on it.. Maybe if you read it you can tell me..

Update: But of course there was going to be a parody.. (Thanks Moussa)

Lebanese Cartoonist Had To Defend Drawing of Sayyed Nasrallah

This caricature has landed famous Lebanese cartoonist Pierre Sadek in hot waters (Arabic) with “the people of the resistance”. I’m looking at it and I honestly can’t see why anyone would be offended by it. Unless the very portrayal of a man of religion is forbidden, but last time I check such reverence was reserved for the Prophet only..

❊ The National Dialogue. A Waste of Time or a Chance for Hezbollah to Bow Out?

– For a change, this could be useful –

From an editorial in Now Lebanon:

The national defense strategy is a chimera, a function that allows the Party of God to maintain its weapons while appearing to side with reason and debate. Does he honestly believe that Hezbollah would put its weapons at the disposal of the state when they are the very stick that allows it to beat the state whenever it feels like it?

I made that same argument before, but I think this conventional wisdom is worth revisiting in the wake of what’s happening in Syria and Iran nowadays: What if the national dialogue was Hezbollah’s chance to disarm without losing face?

Maybe this sounds too optimistic and more like a stretch of imagination. But let’s assume a regional war against Iran and an implosion of the Syrian regime take place in the coming years. With its two military crutches broken, wouldn’t Hezbollah prefer to transition into the role of normal Lebanese party that advocates a different kind of resistance –namely moral and economic– against Israel?

It would be a mistake to humiliate a weakened Hezbollah considering the place it has in the hearts of many in the Lebanese Shiaa community and considering the danger it could pose if it found itself cornered. A grand Lebanese bargain, as Michael Young had suggested in a previous National column, could be the wise course of action to take:

an increasingly insecure Hizbollah is also potentially a dangerous one. Now is the time for the party’s Lebanese rivals to consider innovative ideas for integrating Shiites into the political system. One such idea is to offer a swap – Hizbollah’s weapons in exchange for more political power for the Shiites – in the framework of a broader reform effort.

For reasons of self-interest, if not compassion, the rest of the Lebanese would do well to give Hezbollah a ladder to climb down on. The national dialogue would be the perfect theater to stage such an honorable exit

Hezbollah’s Guide To Fighting Assad’s Army

Lebanon’s Hezbollah has managed to resist Israel’s invading army –the region’s most powerful armed force– by successfully deploying guerrilla tactics in what is known as an asymmetric war (where one side is much more powerful than the other).

Bashar el Assad’s powerful Syrian army is waging an equally unbalanced war against the lightly armed Free Syrian Army (FSA). What would Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah advise the FSA to do in order to emerge victorious? Below are some of the tips he would have given the leaders of the FSA had he not decided to side with the forces of aggression:

  • When the enemy is attacking, lay low. The point is to fight the enemy when its guards are down and is least expecting it. So with all the indiscriminate shelling happening today in Syria, the best thing the FSA can do is to wait and conserve its energy.
  • Attack where the enemy is least prepared: The Syrian army is on the offensive in Homs and Zabadani? Attack in Deraa and Aleppo.
  • Keep the propaganda war on: You’re the weak party that is being constantly pummeled by a stronger one. The aim is to lower the morale of your enemy’s soldiers and convince them that they’re fighting an unjust war. It is also to show the world that your enemy is an aggressor.
  • Use your community’s support to your advantage. When the enemy approaches, melt away in the population. Burry your weapons in a safe place and don civilian clothes. The soldier can’t stay around forever. Occupation costs money.
  • Use kidnapping, creative “qualitative operations” and deception. Those generate high publicity and raise the costs of protecting the enemy’s soldiers.
  • Remember that the aim is to wear down the enemy, not to deliver a knockout blow.

And finally, always remember that things may take time, but be confident that in the end you will emerge victorious.

Has Hamas Left Iran’s Orbit?

- Lose the gun son -

A few weeks ago the US National Security Advisor Tom Donilon said the following: “Iran is basically down to just two principal remaining allies — the Assad clique in Syria and Hezbollah”

It was telling that Hamas was not on that list. There was talk at the time that Hamas has left the Mullahs and was now in the orbit of influence of post-revolutionary Egypt. Today we are starting to witness some of the repercussions of that break, as we are hearing noises about Hamas potentially letting go of armed resistance altogether and switching to non-violent resistance against Israel.

If this is true, it’s huge for two reasons:

  • It would be the first time an Arab resistance group willfully abandons violence because it believes that non violence is a more effective way to restore rights. That should be attributed to the success of the revolutions in places like Tunisia.
  • It would deprive the Hezbollah-Assad-Iran axis of the only Sunni ally they had, which served as very important PR talking point whenever they were accused of being a “Shiaa Crescent”.
If Hamas is indeed renouncing violence, Israel would be crazy if it did not reward this switch in a meaningful way, by making tangible concessions towards peace with Palestine. If the Hebrew state wanted to send the message that violence doesn’t pay, this would be the best opportunity to do so.

Update: Read Hussein Ibish’s more subtle and informed take on Hamas’ realignment

Also: What stands in the way of Palestinian non-violence ?

American Soldiers Withdraw Publicly From Iraq. Nasrallah’s Conspiracy Falls Flat on its Face.

American troops withdrawing from Iraq

- Oh look! they’re withdrawing! -

If you watched CNN today, you can’t escape the part of the news that covers the American withdrawal from Iraq. There are endless videos of military vehicles streaming out of Iraq. There are interviews with happy soldiers. There’s even a reporter embedded inside one of the withdrawing vehicles. It’s one of those news items that just go on and on without end and leave you wishing there was a “next item” button.

Why am I bringing this up? Because this is something Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah told us will never happen. Here’s what he said in his Ashoura speech on December 7th:

If you open the Arab and international satellites you will not find any news about the withdrawal from Iraq, no picture about the tanks’ or the army’s pullout, knowing that yesterday I read in a newspaper the number of American soldiers who are still present in Iraq.

How did 150,000 soldiers pullout from Iraq without anyone recognizing or even knowing about the issue? They did succeed in that.

This was –you guessed it– a conspiracy to hide the humiliation of a retreating American army that was vanquished by the “Iraqi Mujahideen”. The great American propaganda machine supposedly took great care in hiding images of the dog running with its tail between its legs, and “it succeeded”, Sayyed Nasrallah magnanimously conceded…

Alas, with Hezbollah, there’s always a conspiracy lurking around the corner. It’s the tinted glass they see the world with: A world that is out to get them against which they have to stay guarded, armed to the teeth and united. It is one thing to know a paranoid person. It is completely another to be ruled by one.

Le Figaro Says Imad Moughnieh Killed Rafik Hariri Behind Nasrallah’s Back

Le Figaro paints a picture of a despondent Hezbollah that is cornered, confused and angry. According to the french publication, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was betrayed by Imad Moughnieh who assassinated the Lebanese ex prime minister Rafik Hariri behind his back. Moughnieh was then killed himself by Maher el Assad in Damascus.

The article is behind a paywall, but you can read a quick summary of it in Arabic here.