Blogging Lebanon since 2005

I find the Emir’s visit to Lebanon quite significant. It is a known fact that Hezbollah prefers the Emir of Qatar over the Saudi King as an arbitrator, and the Emir is obviously enjoying that role. He pointedly came at the same day as the Saudi King and the Syrian President without crossing their paths. He will spend more time in Lebanon and unlike the others, he will visit the Lebanese south.

A lot has been made of the fact the the Syrian president came with the Saudi Monarch. The takeaway was that President Assad and King Abdallah represented both sides of the Lebanese divide, and that they could together calm things down. That analysis ignores the possibility that Assad could have “sold out” Hezbollah. The party of God continue to look warily at Syria’s acrobatics, and is scratching its head trying to guess what Syria’s quid-pro-quo could be.

Enter the Emir of Qatar, who likes to portray himself as an independent broker. Hezbollah likes to give weight to the Emir as a way of kicking Saudi Arabia’s authority in the side. I Expect a lot of rice to be thrown at him in southern villages in the upcoming days.

One thing is for sure, things remain in flow and the coming few months remain uncertain for Lebanon.

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Note: Posts with titles starting with an ❊ (asterisk) are my opinion posts. I used this system to separate long posts from quick links and comments.

Hariri’s Future movement is doing a delicate dance in responding to Sayyed Nassrallah.

Hezbollah’s leader claimed that Mr. Hariri had told him that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon was about to indict “rogue” Hezbollah members. In responding to those claims, Mr. Hariri wants to mollify his outraged base, which perceived an act of treason to the cause of finding out who killed Hariri the father.

At the same time, Mr. Hariri wants to keep things calm with Hezbollah. He didn’t want to make a loud, clear-cut denial, because Hezbollah’s supporters appreciated Mr. Hariri’s supposed disclosure.

Mr. Hariri didn’t hastily arrange a press conference to refute, in clear language, what Mr. Nassrallah had said. Instead, he let his minions tell the press that Sayyed Nassrallah’s claims are not true. Mr. Hariri focused his own pronouncements (Arabic) largely on keeping things calm in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, which is in a delicate position and nervous about a Saudi-Syrian rapprochement, is not a fan of vague political positions. This is why they’re trying to bring back certainty to the fray.

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Note: Posts with titles starting with an ❊ (asterisk) are my opinion posts. I used this system to separate long posts from quick links and comments.

According to “sensitive intelligence sources”, Hezbollah are now hiding all their weapons among civilians:

The unintended results of this open and overriding concern for the safety of Lebanese civilians, combined with the almost addictive need on the part of Hezbollah to target Israel at any cost, has produced the current situation in which Hezbollah has essentially taken the civilians of southern Lebanon hostage.

Translation: We will kill a lot of Lebanese Civilians in the next war, but don’t blame us, blame Hezbollah.  

Amos Harel:

The organizers have hit on an ideal concept, which not only promises to entangle Israel again and again but makes a meaningful contribution to the ongoing effort to delegitimize the country. If Israel enjoyed a brief golden age in terms of the attitude of the international community (after the Gaza withdrawal in 2005), since Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009 we have been sliding down a slippery slope.

Euhh, sort of.

Reza Aslan (The Daily Beast):

the broad coalition of young people, merchants, intellectuals, and religious leaders that took to the streets to protest the reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a year ago this week has been spectacularly successful in achieving the one goal that they all had common: the de-legitimization of the Iranian regime

and Meir Javedanfar (The Guardian):

The infighting between Mahmound Ahmadinejad and other conservatives have reached new highs. In a strange twist of fate, although Ahmadinejad “won” the presidential election, since then his standing and credibility have become the biggest losers. He is now seen as a weak, incompetent official, who is only there because of his close relations with Iran’s supreme leader

Well, though I do agree that “cracks” are showing up, this building still has a long way before crumbling. In my opinion containing Iran is the best policy.

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Remember how we discussed Israel’s Intentionally behaving clumsily to strike fear in its neighbor’s hearts?

Pepe Escobargives us more details on the larger context in “the method in Israel’s madness“:

essentially, Israel fears the new Turkey, Syria and Iran as much as it fears Russian support for it. A new Middle East is being born – and there seems to be only one place for Israel: isolation.

Israel’s “mad dog” strategy – conceived by former military leader Moshe Dayan – is not exactly an exercise in fitting in

Pity the Arabs. Non Arab neighbors just keep using our causes to expand their influence in the region.

Tony Badran:

Populism in the Arab world is second nature and despite its disastrous track record, it never seems to go out of fashion. Non-Arab regional players like Iran have understood this and have cynically used populism to their advantage.

[..]

What the flotilla episode reaffirmed was the ease with which the Arabs can be used as instruments for the projection of power by the region’s non-Arab powers and traditional centers of regional influence, such as Turkey and Iran.

Meanwhile, we cheer..

Friend Elias Muhanna of Qifa Nabki lists “Five Thoughts on Turkey and the Flotilla Crisis” that I recommend you read.

Here’s a sixth thought which was implied but perhaps Elias was a bit shy to make:

6- Many arabs are craving a strong SUNNI leader to emerge as a counter-part to the bombastic Ahmadinejad of Iran. Mr Erdogan’s Turkey is in a way the perfect antidote to Khomeini’s Iran because it provides a model of free-trade internationalism, strong backbone and an anti-Israel fire that is still very much alive in the bellies of most (Sunni) Arabs.