They don’t teach you this in journalism:

The only good thing that happened in the last war [July 2006] was the relative damage caused to Lebanon’s population. The destruction of thousands of homes of “innocents” preserved some of Israel’s deterrent power. The only way to prevent another war is to make it clear that should one break out, Lebanon may be razed to the ground.

You see, apparently women and children deserved to die because the Lebanese as a whole are engaged in a devilish good-cop bad-cop conspiracy against Israel:

What is the real reality in Lebanon? Reality is that Hizbullah and its “rivals” are highly coordinated when it comes to presenting a mirage whereby Hizbullah represents the “bad guys” while the Lebanese government represents the “good guys.” In case of war, Israel would only be allowed to fight the “bad guys,” but it won’t be allowed to target the interests of the “good guys.” The trouble is that it is almost impossible to only hit the “bad guys,” while the “good guys” are immune to us.

That is only matched by Hezbollah’s crazy supporters who say that little Israeli girls deserve to die because they’ll grow up one day to become soldiers and kill Arab children. That said, let’s hope Giora Eiland’s ideas don’t catch on in Israel:

Israel must first and foremost make this clear to its allies. The most effective way to convince anyone is to tell the truth, and the truth is we cannot defeat Hizbullah as long as it is being supported by the Lebanese state. Therefore, if there is again aggression on the part of Lebanon, Israel would have no choice but to fight against the state that is encouraging aggression in practice. Those who had any doubt about the position of the Lebanese state should be reminded of the warm reception for murderer Samir Kuntar on the part of the Lebanese president and government ministers.

Many Lebanese bloggers are clearly not amused by what they see as a disingenuous posturing by politicians pretending to enjoy today’s “national celebrations”

Over at ouwet.com , N10452 writes:

I cannot believe we are cheering for an animal that is being freed from Israeli prisons …We are cheering for a man who killed a 4 year old baby after killing her father in front of her ..You tell me he was retaliating ?? By killing innocent children & civilians you retaliate ?? Or even worse, some people tell me 2 kills is ok compared to the atrocities Israel committed over the years. ..As if it makes any difference if you kill one or 20 !! Killing is killing & KILLING IS WRONG !! Shame on our people … shame shame shame !!

MS Levantine saw her cynicism tested:

I consider myself a Teflon Lebanese: nothing in my country really
surprises me. I am cynical enough to always expect the worse, and I am
never disappointed. Still, I am perplexed by the festivities organized
for the return of Mr. Qantar. The man is a child killer.

Charles at LPJ concurs:

Qantar killed Israeli government personnel and civilians during a raid
in the middle of a war. However, he also killed a four year old girl by
smashing a rock into her head. There is no excuse on Earth to justify
that action, and there is no way that I can ever say that this man is a
hero. Any man willing to smash in the head of a 4 year old child with a
rock should remain in prison for the rest of his life. My disgust has no words… My tears…

And Lebanon Foreign Policy blog rhymes along:

To receive Samir Kuntar with the red carpet is [or should be] a major
embarrassment for Lebanon. In spite of the political calculations,
Kuntar’s most “heroic” gesture was to murder in cold blood a four years
old girl. Oh wait. He did kill Einat’s dad before smashing her skull.

And bloggers are not alone; A quick look at the dozens of denouncing comments in one of my previous posts, and you get the general pulse of the disgusted class.

In short, many Lebanese, just like many foreigners just don’t “get” what there is to celebrate..

“Three years ago Bashar was embattled … he and the family came really under pressure after Hariri’s killing. Now their position has improved,” Robbins said.

More importantly, analysts say, the U.N. tribunal that could prosecute elements of the Syrian leadership its investigators identified as responsible for Hariri’s assassination has been made to look irrelevant.

“It’s a non-subject in French-Syrian relations,” a French official said. “France has nothing to say on the subject — it is the international community through the Security Council that has taken this matter in hand.”

-Charles from Lebanese Political Journal: New Cabinet, Not That Great.
-N10452 at ouwet.com: A 90% Incompetent Government.

I personally am not as pessimistic as my friends above, but hey, you judge.

If you read the newspaper this morning, chances are you saw that picture with 4 scary missiles being launched in the Iranian desert (example). But as this post in the New York Time shows, one of the missiles was a digital duplicate. A bit embarrassing considering the fact that the whole purpose of the picture is to show the west that “Iran is stronger than you think”.

Thomas Friedman, It’s all about leverage, New York Times:

The “Iran & Friends” strategy is built on five principles:

Principle No. 1: Always seek “control without responsibility.” In Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq, Iran & Friends have veto power over the politics, without being held fully responsible for the electricity. America’s allies, by contrast, tend to have “responsibility without control.”

Principle No. 2: Always insist on being able to both run for political office and bear arms. In Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq, America’s opponents are both in the government and have their own militias.

Principle No. 3: Use suicide bombing and targeted assassinations against any opponents who get in your way. In Lebanon, Syria is widely suspected to have been behind the spate of killings of anti-Syrian journalists and parliamentarians. One suicide attack on a major official in Iraq can neutralize superior U.S. power.

Principle No. 4: Use the nternet as a free command and control system for raising money, recruiting and operations.

Principle No. 5: Cast yourself as the “resistance” to Israel and America, so any opposition to you is equal to support for Israel and America and so no matter how badly you are defeated the mere fact that you “resisted” means you didn’t really lose.

My favorites are No 1 and No 5. I would add one more principle:

Principle No. 6: After coup operations that secure more political power, always consolidate with a swift tactical peace that will mollify your traumatized opponents who will jump at anything that resembles peace.

Thoughts?

Army Radio had quoted a top official in Jerusalem claiming that a senior member in the entourage of President Bush, who concluded a trip to Israel last week, had said in a closed meeting here that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were of the opinion that military action against Iran was called for.

The official reportedly went on to say that “the hesitancy of Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice” was preventing the administration from deciding to launch such an attack on the Islamic Republic for the time being.

Apparently one of the reasons of Bush’s renewed militarism is Hezbollah’s latest coup in Beirut:

Bush, the official reportedly said, considered Hizbullah’s show of strength to constitute evidence of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s growing influence. In Bush’s view, the official said, “the disease must be treated - not its symptoms.”

The White House went on to strongly dismiss the report:

As the President has said, no president of the United States should ever take options off the table, but our preference and our actions for dealing with this matter remain through peaceful diplomatic means. Nothing has changed in that regard.”

He says Hezbollah electrocuted his Genitals (Photo: NY Times)

Hezbollah and Amal appear to be in complete denial that any “Sunni-Shiaa” fitna is taking place in Lebanon. They argue that Hezbollah’s only cause is Jihad against Israel, and that the Sunnis surely must understand this since Hamas, their co-Jihadists, are Sunnis.

If only things were so simple. Today, Robert Worth and Nada Bakri delve deep into the Sunni-Shiaa “ignited fuse” in a homepage report in the New York Times, which starts with a chilling account of the alledged torture of one of Hariri’s men, who was speaking with the Times from the safety of Menieh, a pro-Hariri town in the north:

For two and a half days, Hussein al-Haj Obaid lay on the floor of a darkened warehouse in west Beirut, blindfolded and terrified. Militiamen loyal to Hezbollah had kidnapped him at a checkpoint after killing his nephew right in front of him.

Throughout those awful days, as his kidnappers kicked and punched him, applied electrical shocks to his genitals and insulted him with sectarian taunts, he could hear the chatter of gunfire and the crash of rocket-propelled grenades outside, where Hezbollah and its allies were taking control of the capital.

He returned to this northern village only after family members won his release just over a week ago by threatening the kidnappers with retaliation. By that time Mr. Obaid, a Sunni Muslim, had gained a whole new way of seeing his Shiite countrymen and his native land.

I recommend you read the entire thing. ]]> http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/17/the-sunni-shiaa-tension-is-real-and-dangerous/feed/ http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/15/lebanese-politics-for-dummies/ http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/15/lebanese-politics-for-dummies/#comments Thu, 15 May 2008 21:34:03 +0000 Mustapha http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/15/lebanese-politics-for-dummies/ The latest issue of The Economist has a helpful, nuanced and aptly-titled 4-page briefing on the events that took place in Lebanon in the last three years. Also, while you’re at it, you should check their leader on the current situation… ]]> http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/15/lebanese-politics-for-dummies/feed/ http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/15/iran-smart-america-dumb/ http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/15/iran-smart-america-dumb/#comments Thu, 15 May 2008 11:10:07 +0000 Mustapha http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/15/iran-smart-america-dumb/ Two veteran American commentators who have spent time in Beirut and who are sometimes referred to as the “Liberal Neocons”, have seen what happened in Lebanon and reached similar conclusions.

David Ignatius, in “Iran is winning; can the US bolster the Arab center?”

The center is under siege in Lebanon and across the Middle East as the region becomes more polarized between Iranian-backed extremists and United States-backed forces. Iran’s proxies strike at will - seizing control of Beirut neighborhoods in a naked show of defiance; lobbing missiles into Israel from Gaza to disrupt peace talks; creating havoc in southern Iraq and Baghdad.

And then, with the cunning that makes Iran such a difficult adversary, Tehran’s friends retreat - striking deals that tilt each time a bit more in favor of the radicals. It’s a familiar pattern: Iran unsheathes the sword, bloodies the moderates enough to show its power, and then puts the sword back in the sheath. Would that America were so deft in helping its friends.

Thomas Friedman in “The New Cold War”:

the struggle for influence across the region, with America and its Sunni Arab allies (and Israel) versus Iran, Syria and their non-state allies, Hamas and Hezbollah. [..]

For now, Team America is losing on just about every front. How come? The short answer is that Iran is smart and ruthless, America is dumb and weak, and the Sunni Arab world is feckless and divided.

This narrative is popular in the Middle East, Iran and in Israel, but it is yet to be accepted by the majority of the American people.