France was considering abolishing the re-enactment of the crime of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri after giving it a second thought, As-Safir newspaper reported Thursday. “After reviewing its accounts following questions over the need for and the benefit behind the reenactment on French territory, Paris was moving toward abolishing reenactment of the Hariri crime,” A French source told As-Safir.

Remember, only 5 days ago, more details emerged (French link) on the enactment like the exact location (The captieux military camp south of Bordeau) and the date (September 28). So if Assafir‘s source is correct, we’re talking about a major last-minute political intervention to cancel it, and that could not have come out of thin air.

There’s already a French denial that surfaced on LBC:

LBC television on Thursday, however, quoted French sources as denying that Paris is likely to abolish reenactment of the Hariri crime. The sources said such a decision is linked to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, not France.

Anyway, if you want real information on this, subscribe to Malbrunot’s blog. He’s Le Figaro’s point man on the matter

Ms. [Henrietta] Aswad brings an in-depth knowledge of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and its issues, and extensive public communication and management experience in the private and development sectors focused on strategic planning, and business and human development. Before joining the office of the Prosecutor, she worked as Regional Communications Adviser for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), based in Amman, Jordan.

Her considerable work in the region has included advising, assisting and building capacity of UN staff, NGOs, professional media, private and government institutions in strategy development, communication and advocacy matters.

Make no mistake about it: They hired her to fight the war of Lebanese hearts and minds.

Aoun’s decision according to Hussein may have come after feeling isolated following his attacks against the president and Lebanese government including PM Saad Hariri.

Hussein thinks that “Aoun may decide soon to quit politics altogether specially after the arrest of his FPM official , retired Brigadier General Fayez Karam, and burning all his political bridges”

Jibberjabber

At some point, we made a mistake. At one stage, we accused Syria of assassinating the martyred premier. That was a political accusation, and that political accusation is over. There is a (UN) court that is doing its job, and we for our part must reassess what happened. The tribunal is completely independent of our political accusations, which were made prematurely. The tribunal only takes into consideration evidence.

That is for all intents and purposes a political bombshell of Jumblatt-esque proportions. But we have been seeing this coming since Mr. Hariri started improving his relationship with the Syrian president.

There will definitely be a sense of betrayal with many of the Future Movement rank-and-files who spent the last 5 years of their lives burning bridges with Syria and syrians and wasting energy on convincing people that the Syrian regime is pure evil.

The real question is why did Mr. Hariri reverse his position?

The problem is that all the answers to that question are not good. Does Mr. Hariri know something about the upcoming STL indictment? Wouldn’t that mean that the Tribunal is not as air-tight as Mr. Hariri and his allies keep insisting?

The other answer is even worse: Could Mr. Hariri have sold-out justice for his father to political expediency (or Saudi pressure)? Wouldn’t that mean that Hezbollah’s accusations of a politicized process are justified?

All the same. We have now officially entered a new political era.

Those living in Achrafieh can, for instance, turn to the nearest police station for help at the slightest trouble or injustice brought upon them by anyone. The inhabitants of Dahiyeh, however, cannot necessarily do the same. Those living in Bourj Abi Haidar between the local headquarters of the Islamic Charitable Association Projects and Hezbollah, which are allies, will always be gripped by fear. In contrast, those living in Achrafieh between two local headquarters of the Kataeb and the Free Patriotic Movement, which are foes, do not feel any fear or wariness.

But therein lies a paradox: The Dahiyeh guys have stronger political representation:

The forces representing chaos and weapons seem to enjoy more perks and benefits compared to those representing security and order. This gives rise to a feeling of injustice

Talk about the rules of the jungle..

There are weapons in every house [...] This is an old file and dealing with it is complicated, takes time and requires wisdom [...] There is a wrong methodology being adopted in the country whereby [some parties] make use of an incident to try to tackle a matter that cannot be addressed this way [...] Investigations [by the Lebanese Army] are ongoing, we paid compensations for [residents with damaged property], and the issue is over

So if I understand correctly, Sayyed Nasrallah is not against the principle of disarming Beirut, he’s against the approach being taken by politicians to achieve that. But then again, perhaps he just wants the matter to go away by portraying it as too difficult to solve.

What bothers me most is the attitude of “Let’s solve this behind closed doors and not involve any public debate in the matter”, because apparently the public lacks “wisdom”.

as much as Taha says he loves Palestine, he cannot envision himself there. He says he has been here so long, he is different than his brother who remained behind. He says the refugees have become what they have become. Unlike his relatives in Israel, he says the refugees cannot live with the Israelis. [...] He would just like to be allowed to set up business outside the camp. He says he is Lebanese.

Cynics will say that of course the Voice of America would feature people like Taha because America’s interest is in pressuring Lebanon to take in the Palestinians. Christian parties like the FPM, the LF and the Phalanges always maintained that there’s an international conspiracy to nationalize the Palestinians in Lebanon, and Muslims play along to pay lip service to the Palestinian cause

But the anecdotal reality in not far from where Taha is. In fact I’m surprised that the Lebanese just take it for granted that Palestinians who were born in Lebanon and who lived all their lives here would like to go somewhere else and call it home.. The Lebanese should have a real strategy when it comes to the final regional settlement, and not just stick their heads in the sands.

Many of the dailies are wondering: Why did the prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) choose a news website to deliver a page-1 headline scoop interview?

Lebanese newspapers are still far from disrupted by the internet, and you can sense that their attitude was more “WTF” than “Shit I’m screwed.” Some Hezbollah-friendly newspapers pounced on the fact that Now Lebanon is close to March 14, and the wild-eyed conspiracy theorists are probably gearing up to use this as proof that both the STL and Now Lebanon are “American controlled bodies.”

While I’m personally a strong supporter of web journalism and of Now Lebanon (I have many friends who work there), I can’t help but find Mr. Bellemare’s choice at best naive and at worst impetuous. He needlessly opened the door to speculations about political preference and access control, when he could have simply communicated his position in a press release or, if he must talk, a press conference.

I’m happy that Now Lebanon got the scoop, but Mr. Bellemare should have known that in such an explosive political environment, the messenger is as important as the message.

Demands for a weapons-free Beirut are not aimed at Resistance weapons which are being discussed at the national dialogue [...] This slogan, however, is to protect the principle of Resistance from being tarnished and from sliding in the mud of internal confrontations

Blah, blah, blah…This is the result of intense pressure from Hezbollah, the Syrians and just about anyone with pro-resistance sentiments.

But they’re not fooling anyone. We all know in our hearts of hearts that the original “Weapons Free Beirut” slogan was aimed squarely at Hezbollah.

History taught us again and again that arms beget more arms, except when held by the legitimate central authority. Even if we do trust Hezbollah and their general struggle, that doesn’t mean that we can trust their rank-and-file elements, who are after all humans who can succumb to the temptations of power such weapons can provide.

If you have an RPG in your trunk, you’re more likely to aggressively demand a premium parking space from a defenseless layman.

Plus there is no argument whatsoever to justify the carrying of arms, designed to fight Israel, in Beirut.

Update: Now Lebanon has an opinion piece on the statements made by the above-mentioned Hezbollah MP and is worth the read.

Political differences are legitimate in our democratic system, but they should remain within political boundaries and not spill out into the streets [...] It is our duty to unite our word and join our ranks … among brethren in one homeland

I don’t think the Mufti should have gone there. His visit, as a religious sunni leader, emphasizes the sectarian nature of the clashes. It sends a not so helpful message: “Sunnis are standing together in face of the Shiaa assault”.

Syria and Hezbollah, and behind the party Iran, are engaged in an increasingly visible struggle for power in Lebanon [...] and it is why Jumblatt is so alarmed. He’s caught in the middle, and though the Druze leader has made clear that he’s on the side of Damascus (and Saudi Arabia, which pays the bills), he also happens to be most vulnerable when facing Hezbollah, which surrounds his mountains and showed in May 2008 that it could penetrate them militarily when necessary.

And yet I feel no pity for the sage of Mukhtara. The man can wiggle his way out of anything. But he seems quite stressed of late. Have you seen the picture posted in the article?

“If some takes up arms to resist the Israeli enemy, the question that presents itself on citizens: What are these weapons in the capital and in alleyways doing among civilians? Why used in the streets?”

This question -which is on everyone’s minds- sounds to me an awful lot like: “What are the PLO doing in Jounieh?”

Lebanon moved to address the widespread possession and use of weapons in the country Wednesday after Shiite and Sunni groups used machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades in a deadly, hours-long street battle. [...] The Information Ministry announced the formation of a committee headed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri to come up with proposals for confronting the problem

Read this one more time: A committee will eventually come up with a proposal to eventually confront (not solve) the problem. You know what this is right? We’re been Marriammed again.

Our stance from the court is known. We don’t recognize it and we don’t cooperate with it,However, if the Lebanese judiciary asks for (the information), then we will cooperate with it and study the requests

What the source ignored to mention was that the Lebanese judiciary will in turn submit the required evidence to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)

Like I said before, Hezbollah wants to show its supporters that it’s not cooperating with the STL, but at the same time, it doesn’t want to ignore the body point blank because of various internal and external pressures. This is why Hezbollah is dealing with the STL by proxy.