Yesterday, during a Tv show, Minister Fawzi salloukh proposed that the Lebanese abroad register their names so that ‘the Lebanese government can keep records of them”.

The proposal comes amid growing demands for the Lebanese abroad to vote in the upcoming elections and Mr. Salloukh’s suggestion could be seen as a first step in that direction. But before the Lebanese rush to register their names, they should be careful about a potential trap that could deprive them of that very right.

We shouldn’t forget that Mr. Salloukh, after all, is a politician who belongs to a political party. He could well be gathering that information to ‘feel the waters’ for his party’s chances in such an election. If the data wasn’t favorable, Mr. Berri could very well shoot down the diaspora’s voting.

But what if Mr. Salloukh’s intentions were good? Doesn’t the ministry of external affairs and immigrants have the right to collect information before organizing elections outside of the country?

Of course it does, but it should be done in coordination with a bipartisan electoral commission that would emerge from the new electoral law. Anything before that could very much be a scam by politicians to control our votes.

Naharnet called it “controversial” and quoted a Salafist sheikh who characterized it as “bad for Sunnis.” The Future Movement remained silent -Update: Future Movement member Samir Jisr said that Mr. Hariri was not aware of the agreement and that the FM has nothing to do with it. Mr. Jisr said that comprehensive agreements are better than bilateral ones- But today’s M.O.U between Hezbollah and Salafists is a reminder to March 14 that if they want to compete with Hezbollah, they will have to be as pro-active and creative.

One can argue that Hezbollah’s Salafist partners are marginal, but one can’t deny that the M.O.U has achieved many objectives for them:

• It has calmed the nerves of Hezbollah Shiite supporters who were concerned about Iraqi-style terrorist attacks on their mosques and markets
• It has received wide acclaim in Lebanon and among Arabs for seeking to prevent intra-Islamic bloodletting
• It has added a dent to Hezbollah’s reputation (some would say manufactured) as a sectarian Shiite Movement
• It undermines the rationale of many pro-March 14 Sunni extremists who support the Future Movement because they believed Hezbollah’s project is an existential threat to Sunnis in Lebanon

In other words, it was exactly the kind of show Hezbollah needed to put up. In fact, this M.O.U is so politically effective that Hezbollah’s opponents will find it very difficult to portray it as “bad” or “evil”. For now, the best they can do is grumble in private and call it “controversial”

So finally, after 14 meetings (coincidence?), it seems the government will finally have a mission statement at hand. As soon as it will be published, a massive public scrutiny will follow. Here are some of the things we should be looking for:

- Is the statement a fudge that is heavy on spin and light on substance? Or is it really the result of a laborious soul-searching exercise as Mr. Mitri had suggested?

- Will the statement resolve the thorny issue of the “resistance and the state” or will it simply lay the framework for discussing the matter in the future?

- Will the statement discuss the relationship between Hezbollah’s weapons and the upcoming parliamentary elections? Or will it completely ignore it?

- Will the statement put an end to freelance diplomacy by Hezbollah and its allies, like recently supporting the Sudanese government and backing the Iranian nuclear program?

- In light of the upcoming Israeli change of leadership, will the statement establish ‘best practices’ for dealing with Israeli potential aggressions or overtures?

Those are just some points to look for in the statement. Did I forget to mention anything? What other things do you think we should be looking for?

Mika in Beirut (Reuters)

Eventually, someone’s going to take it upon himself to dig and find out to what sect Mica Penniman –a.k.a Mika– belongs to. If that person hits jackpot and find out that he belongs to his same sect, he will swiftly spread the fact via email to his/her coreligionists in a secret Lebanese ritual of tribal pride.

Other than that, Mika’s concert is that rare thing in Lebanese public life: A non political event that gives you an opportunity to ignore the fact that your country is falling apart. After all, why would you spend your night listening to politicians with multiple personality disorder if you can instead drink your night away and sing along:

Everybody’s gonna love today,Love today, love today.
Everybody’s gonna love today, Anyway you want to,
anyway you’ve got to, Love love me, love love me, love love.

Girl with a groove with the big bust on,Big bust on, big bust on.
Wait till your mother and your papa’s gone,Papa’s gone
Momma, momma papa, shock shock me,Shock shock me,
shock shock.

In Lebanon, oddly, those can come off as words of wisdom…

(Photo credit: New York Times)

Elias Harfoush makes the argument in Alhayat that Hezbollah has reached an amount of pre-eminence no one else has ever achieved in Lebanese politics, and that it would be foolish for us to think that it will willingly shrink itself to go back to equal footing with the rest of the Lebanese:

…urging the party to engage in public politics on an equal footing with other Lebanese parties and to give up the position that it now occupies domestically, regionally and sometimes internationally is not a realistic demand

So what’s a party of God to do? Mr. Harfoush explains Hezbollah’s ambitious plans:

Hence, rather than responding to the demand by the state and other Lebanese that the party returns to a “normal size” on an equal footing with others, Hezbollah is encouraging others to join its project such that its program becomes that of all Lebanese, hence the program of the state with all its institutions. Consequently, Hezbollah will logically become the “ruling party” in terms of goals and strategy rather than one of the ruling parties within the framework of a national unity government as the case is now

Mr. Harfoush thinks that the Lebanese have no other option –short of a bloody confrontation with disastrous ends– but to “coexist” with Hezbollah’s demand.

Of course some would argue that such appeasement will only embolden Hezbollah, but I personally think that something will have to give at some point. You can’t have all this power (being the effective ruling party) without any sort of accountability (only one minister in the government). So it is very likely that the well-tested Lebanese checks-and-balances system will eventually outsmart Hezbollah.

Thoughts?

(Photo source)

Perhaps it’s because they never really got to navigate the labyrinth of governance in Lebanon, but Gebran Bassil, our new minister of Telecommunications and Alain Tabourian, our new minister of energy and water, –both Aoun loyalists– have brandished some sensible plans for their tenures.

They both saw something terribly wrong in the way things are going and suggested fixes, perhaps immaturely, and perhaps off the top of their minds. But we’re talking about the kind of obvious stuff that makes you wonder: Why didn’t anyone try to do something about this before?

Mr. Gebran Bassil saw that Lebanon has one of the highest cellphone rates in the world (30 cents per SMS!!), and made fee reduction a priority. Mr. Alain Tabourian, a succesful businessman and philantropist, saw that the government is paying way too much subsidy for electricity and came up with a plan: Let’s charge electricity hoggers (Like ABC mall in the picture above) market prices while keeping the subsidy for those who use less power like your average mom & pop stores. To me that makes perfect sense and it’s about time(although I think exceptions should be made for the Lebanese industry to keep it competitive.)

Perhaps the ministers are just being naive, or worse, populists for political gains in the next elections. But at least they have started a conversation about matters the Lebanese really care about.

To listen to Mr. Walid Jumblat speak to the international media about how happy he is with the release of Mr. Kuntar, one would be excused to doublecheck who the speaker is. In his interview today with a clearly baffled Owen Benett Jones of the BBC, Mr. Jumblat refused to concede even one bit that Mr. Kuntar might have ever made a mistake. He replied to all questions relating to Mr. Kuntar’s killing of an Israeli family by changing the subject and defiantly denouncing Israel’s crimes against humanity and illegal occupation of Arab lands.

So why is Mr. Jumblat, the darling of Washington –and the only major Lebanese politician who publicly denounced Hezbollah’s “militia” as terrorists– risking his and Lebanon’s international reputations by so effusively embracing Mr. Kuntar and by instructing his loyalists to celebrate his release?

The answer lies in the Druze community which he leads and to which Mr. Kuntar belongs. (To all those of you who though he was a Shiaa, correct your notes)

Mr. Jumblat realized back when Hezbollah invaded Beirut and attempted to invade the mountains, that the small Druze community could be facing an existential threat from the Shiaas, who in taking their cue from Mr. Nassrallah’s very public and harsh denouncement of Mr. Jumblat, have come to look to the Druze as a Judeo-American fifth column. In Samir Kuntar, Mr. Jumblat saw a powerful symbol to remind everyone of the “Druze’s history in Arab resistance”, as he told the BBC’s Bennett Jones.

By this posturing, Mr. Jumblat can strike two birds in one stone: He can undermines the perception of Shiaa monopoly on resistance and reduce the heat on his community, and he can open the door for a potential electoral alliance with Hezbollah in the upcoming elections (a far fetched wish, but can’t stop a politician from dreaming)

Still, it remains to be seen whether Mr. Jumblatt’s fabled elasticity will work for him this time…

Forget what Speaker Berri said to PM Seniora about him “wasting” the Ministry of Justice by giving it to the Lebanese Forces. Professor Ibrahim Najjar, the LF’s choice for the seat, commands great respect in Lebanese legal circles, even in those related to Mr. Berri.

What sets Mr. Najjar aside is his field of specialization. Mr. Najjar wrote many books and treatises on domestic issues with a distinct libertarian emphasis. A quick look at his impressive bibliography and you’ll understand why women’s groups like the Campaign for Arab Women’s Right To Nationality will be salivating at his nomination.

Lebanon has many antiquated domestic laws, like the fact that a women, unlike men, can’t give their nationalities to their children if they marry non Lebanese men, or that women need to secure their husbands’ approval before traveling. Laws like these hang on in the system because the people at the top didn’t really care about them and didn’t devote any energy to straighten them out.

Granted, the Minister of Justice isn’t the person who legislates new laws, but having such a passionate advocate in such a high position can only be a good thing for Lebanese women.

Fares Soueid, the General Secretary of March 14 loves the big picture. You often find him in various TV station talk shows, talking about grand schemes and lofty ideals, long-term projects and sophisticated theories about the Christians in the East and how the March 14 alliance can restore their influence. Yet when it comes to the nitty-gritty of politics, like in the recent infighting over ministerial positions, Mr. Soueid becomes conspicuously absent.

I like to compare the March 14 project to the European Union. A great idea on paper with enormous potential, but when push comes to shove, the nation state becomes the only polity that really matters. Likewise, in March 14, when matters become concrete (a ministerial position here, an election there), the alliance breaks down into its separate sectarian blocks that compete to further their individual interests.

So why insist on having such an umbrella group?

Mr Soueid would perhaps answer that the March 14 project, as imagined by people like Gebran Tueni and Samir Kassir, is an inherently optimistic and hopeful project. A yearning to a time when the Lebanese will move beyond tribalism into the realm of ideas and fair competition.

But as far as this generation is concerned, what really matters is who gets the ministry of public works.

To Mr. Seniora, rejecting Mr. Qanso in his cabinet was a matter of principle:

Sources in Saniora’s office said the premier-designate is “keen on forming a national unity cabinet that would lead the nation to a new era.”

“Qanso’s participation would not serve this purpose because he had threatened to liquidate Mustaqbal Movement members, topped by the movement leader MP Saad Hariri” during clashes between the Hizbullah-led opposition and pro-government gunmen in May.

To March 14, Hezbollah’s proposal of Mr. Qanso was a poison pill that is meant to prevent the formation of the new government in order to embarrass President Sleiman in his upcoming summit in Paris. Add to that the continued violence in Tripoli, which the majority sees as the Syrians’ way of saying “take Qanso or else” (witness Mr. Mouallem’s unsubtle remarks) , and we get ourselves the recipe for a symbolic battle over whether or not Syria should be able to dictate its choices on us by force.

The question is: Was Mr. Qanso worth all this fuss?

There is no doubt that he’s a terrible person. But If Mr. Seniora chose to accept Hezbollah, the main architects of Beirut’s invasion, in his cabinet, then why would he single out Mr. Qanso as a troublemaker? Moreover — to play the devil’s advocate — Mr. Berri is right: The Doha agreement did not confer on Mr. Seniora a veto right on who the opposition can choose to represent it.

Mr. Seniora should climb down as fast as possible in a face-saving way, to avoid this turning this into another high-stakes battle over an essentially insignificant individual. Mr. Seniora is also allowing his critics to accuse him of creating small battles as a distraction from the infighting taking place in the ranks of March 14 over cabinet positions.

(Illustration by Beirut Spring, source image here)

Thanks to the official website of the FPM, we now know that in the upcoming cabinet will include Messrs. Issam Abu Jamra, Gebran Bassil, Mario Aoun and Elie Skaff as Vice Premiere, Minister for Telecommunications, Minister for Social Affairs and Minister of Agriculture respectively. What we don’t know is what kind of ministers they will be.

Many of Mr. Aoun’s detractors always argued that his popularity is based on the fact that he never had to govern. Since he never assumed responsibility, the argument goes, he kept the image of the clean outsider. In other words, once Mr. Aoun joins the executive branch of the government, the halo will fade.

Mr. Aoun knows that, but he will try to have it both ways. He already pre-empted his critics by promising to behave as an “opposition within the government”, and his selection of portfolios shows that he’s staying away from potentially problematic ministries like Finance, Labor and the Economy. Still, the Vice Premiership and the telecommunications ministry can prove to be delicate, but he’ll definitely navigate them carefully.

The Aounist Minister will try to stay out of the light, but he (not she) will make the occasional grand gesture to show that he’s a different kind of ruler. And with such a short tenure, he could very well pull off that trick.

Entering a new phase…

It is only a matter of hours before Mr. Seniora announces the formation of a new government. It took a while, but the arduous, ridiculously painstaking work of allocating portfolios to protegés finally seems to be over.

So what are we to expect from the new cabinet?

First, don’t wait for any controversies. This government will play it safe until the many uncertain regional issues (American elections, Syria-Israel talks, Iran vs the West) are clarified. This is why you shouldn’t expect any fight over the government’s manifesto. Expect it to be a fudge that will give each party a face-saving bone. Sayyed Nassrallah’s conciliary tone in his last speech and the subsequent visit by Hezbollah members to Mr. Seniora were a prelude to the shape of things to come.

Second, don’t look for any long-term plans. This government will only last till next year’s parliamentary elections, and every single decision will be based on that fact. The cabinet will focus on day-to-day issues that concern the average Lebanese and forget about grand plans like reforming public finances (Seniora) or the judiciary (Aoun). Expect instead generous bouts of election-driven infrastructure reconstruction projects.

Third, don’t be too shocked if the Ministers got too comfortable with this tension-free arrangement and decided among themselves to push the potentially troublesome elections forward.

And fourth, remember the golden rule of Lebanese politics and forget all the previous paragraphs: Anything is possible in this ridiculously complicated country.

Imad Zaghloul, an FM supporter hospitalized after being attacked by mobs. (source: Almustaqbal)

Yesterday, Mr. Saad Hariri “suspended” the Future Movement’s contribution in the cabinet Line-up talks. The move was in protest against security breaches by opposition armed gangs in the FM power base of Tarik el Jdideh. Mr. Hariri demanded that the security section of the Qatar agreement be honored before any further talks can take place.

Considering the size of Mr. Hariri’s parliamentary bloc, the move in effect halts the formation of the crucial government. So how big of a deal is this?

According to a source close to Mr. Hariri, the regular intimidation and bullying by armed mobs is radicalizing the Future Movement’s supporters who were already humiliated from their perceived impotence during the previous raid on Beirut. The “Sunni street” is becoming vocal in demanding harsher, more militant measures from Mr. Hariri, on the grounds that the “others only understand the language of force”, he wrote. The implicit political threat is that the supporters will start seeking more radical options if the government fails to guarantee their security.

Under these circumstances, Mr. Hariri decided to put his metaphorical foot on the ground to call attention to the security situation in various areas of Beirut. Mr. Hariri is not interested in stalling the process of forming the new government, according to the source, but he wants the proper security conditions in place. As soon as those are addressed, Mr. Hariri will be the first to celebrate the formation of a new government.

The first to make me smile will win…(photo source: Libération)

It can be argued that the person who lost most from the Doha accord was General Michel Aoun. According to March 14, the hapless General sold his soul for a Faustian bargain that stopped short of delivering the only thing that really mattered to him: The Lebanese Presidency.

It is not easy losing a lifelong dream, especially if you’re surrounded by gloating adversaries hurling “I-told-you-so”s. This is why Mr. Aoun has a strong sense of entitlement for whatever consolation prizes he could lay his hands on. How else could one explain his exorbitant demand for 6 ministers out of the 11 allotted to the opposition (which leaves 5 ministers for Amal and Hezbollah combined), or his demand for highly sensitive government portfolios? (The same government in which, in his words, he will act as an opposition)

Mr. Aoun is not the only one with an interest of saving his face. His allies in the opposition want him to be happy because without him there’s no veto power in the cabinet. His opponents in March 14 also want him to be happy because they see an opportunity to drive a wedge between him and his “backstabbing” allies.

In short everyone wants the general to be happy, and the best way to make Mr. Aoun happy is to make him feel like a President. This explains the Syrian president’s invitation for Mr. Aoun to visit Damascus, a visit expected to be very, uh, presidential.

This also explains Mr. Sarkozy’s unnamed surprise for Mr. Aoun. Something tells me it involves a certain presidential visit to a certain presidential Palais… ]]> http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/06/03/scrambling-to-save-aouns-face/feed/ http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/28/why-they-chose-seniora/ http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/28/why-they-chose-seniora/#comments Wed, 28 May 2008 12:31:40 +0000 Mustapha http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/28/why-they-chose-seniora/ A loyal, thick-skinned and safe pair of hands with no political aspirations is what March 14 wants right now.

(source)

Mr. Hariri was tempted, but something didn’t feel quite right. So he decided to consult his base and his allies and got an unanimous reaction: We love you, but now is not the right time.

It would be political suicide for Mr. Hariri to be Prime Minister ahead of a crucial election. It would allow the opposition to do to him what they did to Mr. Seniora: Blame him for all that is wrong in the country, from high food and oil prices to security outbrakes, in order to score points in the upcomming elections.

By keeping his distance from office, Mr. Hariri will focus on building alliances, on reviewing his long-term strategy and on consolidating his movement. Mr. Seniora on the other hand is used to being a straw man and has proven his mettle for keeping his cool under fire.

This might anger the opposition a bit, but Mr. Seniora is March 14’s best bet for this period.