Here’s how Antoine Hindi, an FPM (Aounist) reader of this site sees thing:

(Ps: The views expressed in this post do not necessarily represent those of Beirut Spring)

-Hizballah used arms internally and lost their right to claim otherwise
-FPM condoned the use of violence - very negative in their street
-LF Samir Geagea embarrassed himself with ridiculous claims and revealed his true size
-Jumblatt’s new image was lost and he returned to being a sleazy, murdering warlord
-The claims that 14th March is a legitimate government was lost as all
people witnessed first hand their armed forces in action. Whether they
were numerous or not, the Future MOvement obviously has a militia.
-14th March dream that the outside would come to their assistance was reaveled to be a pipe dream.
-Balance of power has shifted substantially. It is obvious that the opposition are the power in Lebanon.
-Saniora was exposed to be a liar, especially with the 2 decisions taken and whether they had been made official.
-The use of sectarianism by the Future movement failed in Beirut as the
Sunni parts, about 600,000 citizens, virtually every household armed,
did not answer the call by the FM to fight the opposition. Beirut was
taken over and only 7 died, less than had been shot by FM supporters in
previous episodes.

My prediction is that there will be nothing holding together the
different factions of FM very much longer, with defections very soon.
The demonstration that the power on the ground is with the opposition,
and that the 14th March cannot rely on any outside help, things will
start to look very different very soon.

Thoughts? Reactions? (PS: Please don’t use profanities as I’ll have to edit them out)

Could the support of a maverick party leader and a highly influential journalist set the Boutros law snowball rolling?

Could they help make our elections fair?

This blog has long argued that the fairest election law out there is the one set up by the national electoral law commission headed by the highly respected figure Mr. Fouad Boutros. The law proposal (read the draft here) which was commissioned in 2005 but never took off because of the Israeli war, is a modern law which comes closest to fulfilling the two conflicting Lebanese needs of true representation and defragmentation.

The problem was that the law encroaches of the political fiefdoms of powerful parties. For example, proportional representation has the potential to reduce the Future movement’s influence in the North and Hezbollah’s in the south. If it takes on, expect some politicians to fight hard to remove some of its clauses (Mr. Geagea doesn’t like the idea of the under-18 voting –a majority of under-18s are Shiaa–, and Muslims in general don’t like the idea of the diaspora, a large-chunk of which is Christian, voting) In other words, without serious pressure from the media, civil groups and independent politicians, the law will never take off.

There is already a civil campaign to vouch for the law, but without serious political backing, it will gather dust. This is where the endorsements of Mr. Ghassan Tueni — arguably the most influential journalist in Lebanon and a respectable March 14 elder — and that of Mr. Aoun (as per Assafir, May 5, 2008), are important. Such high-profile endorsements put the onus on Politicians like Mr. Berri and Mr. Hariri to explain why they’re against the law, and hopefully embarrass them into signing on.

The politicians may be fighting in public, but they’re also solving day-to-day problems in secret.

(photo source)

A Thorny matter of health insurance is being discussed by politicians in Beirut. The Future Movement and Hezbollah both present position papers to guide the deliberations. A civilized debate follows, and several hours later, a compromise is reached and decisions get made.

If you think this is some fictitious dream scenario of an idealized, distant future, think again. This is actually happening:

Lebanon’s polarized political camps came to an agreement on at least one issue on Wednesday, as parties and professional associations approved a blueprint for social policies including national health insurance, a pension system, education and employment. While representatives from the leading parties in the March 14 governing coalition and the March 8 opposition reached consensus on a comprehensive social policy for the country, participants agreed that implementing such sweeping initiatives - such as the long-controversial national health insurance - faces many of the same political obstacles that have fed the nearly 18-month-old deadlock between the rivals.

You see, the Lebanese only disagree on matters of Identity, future visions and war and peace. Trivial matters like health insurance, entitlements and labor are all “technical details” that can be managed with civility and discipline. And you still say we can’t get along?

The Lebanese Forces and the FPM have both decided to overhaul their online news portals.

One party wants to unzip their new site open while the other prefers to tear off the cover. Isn’t competition a wonderful thing? Say what you want about the Lebanese Christians, but they seem to be the only ones engaged in real democracy nowadays.

Rattled by his own defections, the Rabieh General decides to bamboozle us.

Don’t laugh too hard:

Translation: The head of the Change and Reform parliamentary block General Michel Aoun declared that 4 (and maybe more) MPs from the Majority will join his block, but the killing machine used in Lebanese politics is preventing them from coming out publicly.

Rrrright…

Our minister of culture appears to be planning an ambitious law against the “outdated practice” of censorship...

A lot on his mind…

…Or so he told Rana Moussaoui of the AFP, at the end of a lengthy-yet-interesting article about censorship in Lebanon. (Excerpt: “Lebanese society is too steeped in religion to accept attacks on the sacred,” said one bookshop manager, speaking under cover of anonymity.)

But great barriers remain for such a law to see the light. First, the law can only be passed if the dysfunctional parliament votes on it, and it appears that this won’t happen before a political grand-bargain, in which a new government — likely without Mr. Mitri — will be formed, takes place.

Another hurdle to such a law is to convince the Lebanese people to strip religious leaders of some of their disproportional power, something that is unlikely to happen during this generation.

But let’s suppose the law does go through, aren’t we supposed to wonder who will be in charge of choosing the “committee of wise men” whose job will be to out-wise the wisest-of-all religious leaders?