How Much Does Hezbollah Need Syria?

Tom Rogan for The Guardian:

If Nasrallah believes it necessary, he will quietly move to put Hezbollah’s support behind a successor to Assad [...] While Assad provides highly valuable support towards the pursuit of Hezbollah’s objectives, the survival of his regime is not in itself an imperative Hezbollah objective.

Tom Rogan makes the case for a pragmatic Hezbollah, but he seriously understates the level to which Hezbollah would be screwed if the Syrian regime fell. The Relationship Hezbollah has with the Syrian regime is in many ways similar to the relationship Israel had with Husni Mubarak: Whatever replaces him will be a much worse proposition.

Adjusting to a post-Assad Syria is not a “pragmatic realignment” for Hezbollah. It is serious damage control.

  • Shiwa7ad

    I think this article is full of bull****. It inflates Hezbollah just like there were articles that inflated the Syrian regime and its much vaunted stability in face of the Arab Spring due its alleged “steadfast” stance in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
    My take on this:
    1)Hezbollah won’t abandon Assad until they are sure the fall of the regime is very close and the regime has become very weak, because Assad has probably plenty of ways of hurting the Hezb and knows plenty of secrets, including, but not only, on the Hariri assassination.
    2)Hezbollah might want to be again the darling of a new Syrian administration, but such an administration will be courted also by the Gulf nations, Europe and the US. If the new Syrian government is primarily interested in the economy, you can be pretty sure it won’t choose Hezbollah as its top ally. Even in Lebanon, the alliance with Hezbollah never made Syria any money.

  • Bronx

    Shouldn’t the question, “How much does Iran need Syria?” be added into the mix? Hezbollah, my idea, is not the main actor here. Aren’t Syria and Hezbollah acting as a buffer zone to lesson the impact of any war that Iran may have with Israel? Additionally, Iran needs the both of them to aid it in expanding its sphere of influence across the region. When Iran decides that Syria is becoming a liability they will be working very hard to come up with a suitable replacement. This approach has worked for them in Iraq (think of Muqtadā al-Ṣadr). Hezbollah is just a pawn in a much bigger game and their “need” is irrelevant.