Daily Archives: May 17, 2011

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A Way Out For The Syrian Regime?

As I was writing my previous post about non-violence resistance for Palestine, I had a thought that I couldn’t shake off: What if the Syrian regime decides to loudly and publicly adopt non-violent resistance?

Think of the advantages this will give it:

  • It would send the signal to the west that it is renouncing violence, which would allow it to hang on to power
  • It would give it a valid pretext to reign in on Hezbollah, a key Israeli demand and a prerequisite for Syria to reclaim its influence in Lebanon from Iran
  • It would be a face-saving way of breaking up with Iran while keeping the integrity of its “resistance doctrine” (we never said armed resistance)

One commentator wrote that “If Assad survives, he will have to establish some distance from Iran to appease Sunni protesters,”. Claiming the mantle of non-violent resistance could be a clever way of doing just that..

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What Stands In The Way Of Palestinian Non-Violence?

The Economist :

if you’re among those who have made the argument that Israelis would give Palestinians a state if only the Palestinians would learn to employ Ghandhian tactics of non-violent protest, it appears your moment of truth has arrived. As my colleague writes, what happened on Nakba Day was Israel’s “nightmare scenario: masses of Palestinians marching, unarmed, towards the borders of the Jewish state, demanding the redress of their decades-old national grievance.”

Many are skeptical of the viability of non-violent Palestinian resistance, because it is not only a threat to Israel, but also a threat to Hamas, Hezbollah and all armed resistances that grew up during the “What is taken by force can only be reclaimed by force” days.

This old conversion of interests has fueled a very old Middle Eastern conspiracy theory: That Israel and the armed resistances feed off each other’s violence so that they can preserve each other’s existence and relevance. This explains the Israeli policy of shooting unarmed demonstrators, and it also explains the launching of small missiles into Israeli civilian areas during calm periods..

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Saudi Arabia Going Its Own Way

Nawaf Obeid:

For more than 60 years, Saudi Arabia has been bound by an unwritten bargain: oil for security. Riyadh has often protested but ultimately acquiesced to what it saw as misguided U.S. policies. But American missteps in the region since Sept. 11, an ill-conceived response to the Arab protest movements and an unconscionable refusal to hold Israel accountable for its illegal settlement building have brought this arrangement to an end

It’s an important piece to read to understand the Saudi point of view. The problem is that Saudi strategists don’t have a track record to speak of, and risk acting in a reactionary and impetuous way. Ironically, this is the way in which George W. Bush behaved and prompted the Saudis to abandon their historic caution.

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Mubarak’s Rumored Apology

This will be interesting:

A report in Tuesday’s edition of the independent daily al-Shorouk quoted Egyptian and Arab official sources as saying that Mr. Mubarak was “drafting a letter which will be broadcast on Egyptian and Arabic channels, apologizing on behalf of himself and his family for any offence caused to the people.” He is also to apologize “for any behavior which may have stemmed from false information passed on to him by his advisers.”

I find this really hard to believe. The Egyptian ex-president is not the kind of person who would admit to wrongdoing, let alone apologize. The analysts are saying that this will make things easier for everyone, but I think the only reason he might do it is because he’s watching his wife and family being humiliated..